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Tschernig, Rolf ; Weber, Enzo ; Weigand, Roland

Fractionally Integrated VAR Models with a Fractional Lag Operator and Deterministic Trends: Finite Sample Identification and Two-step Estimation

Tschernig, Rolf, Weber, Enzo and Weigand, Roland (2013) Fractionally Integrated VAR Models with a Fractional Lag Operator and Deterministic Trends: Finite Sample Identification and Two-step Estimation. Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 471, Working Paper, University of Regensburg, Regensburg.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 15 Jan 2013 09:53
Monograph
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.27269


Abstract

Fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models allow to capture persistence in time series data in a very flexible way. Additional flexibility for the short memory properties of the model can be attained by using the fractional lag perator of Johansen (2008) in the vector autoregressive polynomial. However, it also makes maximum likelihood estimation more diffcult. In this paper we first ...

Fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models allow to capture persistence in time series data in a very flexible way. Additional flexibility for the short memory properties of the model can be attained by using the fractional lag perator of Johansen (2008) in the vector autoregressive polynomial. However, it also makes maximum likelihood estimation more diffcult. In this paper we first identify parameter settings for univariate and bivariate models that suffer from poor identification in finite samples and may therefore lead to estimation problems. Second, we propose to investigate the extent of poor identification by using expected log-likelihoods and variations thereof which are faster to simulate than multivariate finite sample distributions of parameter estimates. Third, we provide a line of reasoning that explains the finding from several univariate and bivariate simulation examples that the two-step estimator suggested by Tschernig, Weber, and Weigand (2010) can be more robust with respect to estimating the deterministic components than the maximum likelihood estimator.



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Details

Item typeMonograph (Working Paper)
Publisher:University of Regensburg
Place of Publication:Regensburg
Series of the University of Regensburg:Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Volume:471
Number of Pages:26
Date2013
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie
Identification Number
ValueType
RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:27269RePEc Handle
Classification
NotationType
C32Journal of Economics Literature Classification
C51Journal of Economics Literature Classification
Keywordsfractional integration, long memory, maximum likelihood estimation, fractional lag operator
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusUnknown
RefereedNo, this version has not been refereed yet (as with preprints)
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-272697
Item ID27269

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