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Tschernig, Rolf ; Weber, Enzo ; Weigand, Roland

Fractionally Integrated VAR Models with a Fractional Lag Operator and Deterministic Trends: Finite Sample Identification and Two-step Estimation

Tschernig, Rolf, Weber, Enzo und Weigand, Roland (2013) Fractionally Integrated VAR Models with a Fractional Lag Operator and Deterministic Trends: Finite Sample Identification and Two-step Estimation. Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 471, Working Paper, University of Regensburg, Regensburg.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 15 Jan 2013 09:53
Monographie
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.27269


Zusammenfassung

Fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models allow to capture persistence in time series data in a very flexible way. Additional flexibility for the short memory properties of the model can be attained by using the fractional lag perator of Johansen (2008) in the vector autoregressive polynomial. However, it also makes maximum likelihood estimation more diffcult. In this paper we first ...

Fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models allow to capture persistence in time series data in a very flexible way. Additional flexibility for the short memory properties of the model can be attained by using the fractional lag perator of Johansen (2008) in the vector autoregressive polynomial. However, it also makes maximum likelihood estimation more diffcult. In this paper we first identify parameter settings for univariate and bivariate models that suffer from poor identification in finite samples and may therefore lead to estimation problems. Second, we propose to investigate the extent of poor identification by using expected log-likelihoods and variations thereof which are faster to simulate than multivariate finite sample distributions of parameter estimates. Third, we provide a line of reasoning that explains the finding from several univariate and bivariate simulation examples that the two-step estimator suggested by Tschernig, Weber, and Weigand (2010) can be more robust with respect to estimating the deterministic components than the maximum likelihood estimator.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartMonographie (Working Paper)
Verlag:University of Regensburg
Ort der Veröffentlichung:Regensburg
Schriftenreihe der Universität Regensburg:Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Band:471
Seitenanzahl:26
Datum2013
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:27269RePEc Handle
Klassifikation
NotationArt
C32Journal of Economics Literature Classification
C51Journal of Economics Literature Classification
Stichwörter / Keywordsfractional integration, long memory, maximum likelihood estimation, fractional lag operator
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusUnbekannt / Keine Angabe
BegutachtetNein, diese Version wurde noch nicht begutachtet (bei preprints)
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-272697
Dokumenten-ID27269

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