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Kreuzer, Christian ; Priberny, Christopher ; Huther, Johannes

The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets

Article

Kreuzer, Christian, Priberny, Christopher and Huther, Johannes (2024) The perception of Brexit uncertainty and how it affects markets. Credit and Capital Markets 57, pp. 31-47.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.76576


Abstract

We empirically study the perception of political uncertainty by UK’s stock markets, covering the entire Brexit period from January 2013 to March 2020. We find that indices dominated by the largest capitalized companies anticipate negatively perceived events already prior to the actual event, whereas positive events only effect them on the event day or following. In contrast, the FTSE 250, ...

We empirically study the perception of political uncertainty by UK’s stock markets, covering the entire Brexit period from January 2013 to March 2020. We find that indices dominated by the largest capitalized companies anticipate negatively perceived events already prior to the actual event, whereas positive events only effect them on the event day or following. In contrast, the FTSE 250, composed of medium-sized companies, tends to
move prior to positively perceived events. Furthermore, we investigate the daily perception of Brexit measured by a metric based on Google Trends. Our results show that perception significantly affects all major UK indices.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleCredit and Capital Markets
PublisherDuncker & Humblot
Open Access TypeCC-License
Volume57
Page Rangepp. 31-47
Date2024
Date of publication15 Apr 2025 04:30
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Finanzierung (Prof. Dr. Gregor Dorfleitner)
Interdisciplinary Subject NetworkImmobilien- und Kapitalmärkte
Research groups and research centresCenter of Finance
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3790/ccm.2025.1457101DOI
Classification
NotationType
G14, G11, G39, H87Journal of Economics Literature Classification
KeywordsBrexit, event study, perception, Google Trends, GJR-GARCH, United King- dom
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-765767
Item ID76576

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