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Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)
Oberpriller, Johannes
, Herschlein, Christine, Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut
, Krause, Andreas
, Rammig, Anja
, Lindeskog, Mats, Olin, Stefan und Hartig, Florian
(2022)
Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0).
Geoscientific Model Development 15 (16), S. 6495-6519.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 16 Sep 2022 09:43
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.52884
Zusammenfassung
Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a ...
Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS v4.0) across European forests (the species Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris), considering uncertainties of both model parameters and environmental drivers. We find that projected forest carbon fluxes are most sensitive to photosynthesis-, water-, and mortality-related parameters, while predictive uncertainties are dominantly induced by environmental drivers and parameters related to water and mortality. The importance of environmental drivers for predictive uncertainty increases with increasing temperature. Moreover, most of the interactions of model inputs (environmental drivers and parameters) are between environmental drivers themselves or between parameters and environmental drivers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of environmental drivers not only as contributors to predictive uncertainty in their own right but also as modifiers of sensitivities and thus uncertainties in other ecosystem processes. Reducing uncertainty in mortality-related processes and accounting for environmental influence on processes should therefore be a focus in further model development.
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Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Geoscientific Model Development | ||||
| Verlag: | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ort der Veröffentlichung: | GOTTINGEN | ||||
| Band: | 15 | ||||
| Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels: | 16 | ||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 6495-6519 | ||||
| Datum | 30 August 2022 | ||||
| Institutionen | Biologie und Vorklinische Medizin > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Arbeitsgruppe Theoretische Ökologie (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
| ||||
| Stichwörter / Keywords | FAGUS-SYLVATICA L.; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; CO2 FERTILIZATION; LAND-USE; MODEL; GROWTH; PREDICTION; TEMPERATE; NITROGEN; BIOMASS | ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 580 Pflanzen (Botanik) | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Ja | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528843 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 52884 |
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