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Oberpriller, Johannes ; Herschlein, Christine ; Anthoni, Peter ; Arneth, Almut ; Krause, Andreas ; Rammig, Anja ; Lindeskog, Mats ; Olin, Stefan ; Hartig, Florian

Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)

Oberpriller, Johannes , Herschlein, Christine, Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut , Krause, Andreas , Rammig, Anja , Lindeskog, Mats, Olin, Stefan and Hartig, Florian (2022) Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0). Geoscientific Model Development 15 (16), pp. 6495-6519.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 16 Sep 2022 09:43
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52884


Abstract

Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a ...

Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS v4.0) across European forests (the species Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris), considering uncertainties of both model parameters and environmental drivers. We find that projected forest carbon fluxes are most sensitive to photosynthesis-, water-, and mortality-related parameters, while predictive uncertainties are dominantly induced by environmental drivers and parameters related to water and mortality. The importance of environmental drivers for predictive uncertainty increases with increasing temperature. Moreover, most of the interactions of model inputs (environmental drivers and parameters) are between environmental drivers themselves or between parameters and environmental drivers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of environmental drivers not only as contributors to predictive uncertainty in their own right but also as modifiers of sensitivities and thus uncertainties in other ecosystem processes. Reducing uncertainty in mortality-related processes and accounting for environmental influence on processes should therefore be a focus in further model development.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleGeoscientific Model Development
Publisher:COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Open Access Type:Gold (with APC)
Place of Publication:GOTTINGEN
Volume:15
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:16
Page Range:pp. 6495-6519
Date30 August 2022
InstitutionsBiology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022DOI
KeywordsFAGUS-SYLVATICA L.; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; CO2 FERTILIZATION; LAND-USE; MODEL; GROWTH; PREDICTION; TEMPERATE; NITROGEN; BIOMASS
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528843
Item ID52884

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