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Rosero Perez, Paula Andrea ; Realpe Gonzalez, Juan Sebastián ; Salazar-Cabrera, Ricardo ; Restrepo, David ; López, Diego M. ; Blobel, Bernd

Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

Rosero Perez, Paula Andrea, Realpe Gonzalez, Juan Sebastián, Salazar-Cabrera, Ricardo , Restrepo, David , López, Diego M. und Blobel, Bernd (2023) Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index. Journal of Personalized Medicine 13 (7), S. 1141.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 20 Jul 2023 07:55
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.54494


Zusammenfassung

In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with ...

In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with COVID-19. Unfortunately, DANE did not consider multiple factors that could increase the risk of COVID-19 (in addition to demographic and health), such as environmental and mobility data (found in the related literature). The proposed multidimensional index considers variables of different types (unemployment rate, gross domestic product, citizens' mobility, vaccination data, and climatological and spatial information) in which the incidence of COVID-19 is calculated and compared with the incidence of the COVID-19 vulnerability index provided by DANE. The collection, data preparation, modeling, and evaluation phases of the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining methodology (CRISP-DM) were considered for constructing the index. The multidimensional index was evaluated using multiple machine learning models to calculate the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the main cities of Colombia. The results showed that the best-performing model to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Colombia is the Extra Trees Regressor algorithm, obtaining an R-squared of 0.829. This work is the first step toward a multidimensional analysis of COVID-19 risk factors, which has the potential to support decision making in public health programs. The results are also relevant for calculating vulnerability indexes for other viral diseases, such as dengue.



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Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftJournal of Personalized Medicine
Verlag:MDPI
Ort der Veröffentlichung:BASEL
Band:13
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:7
Seitenbereich:S. 1141
Datum15 Juli 2023
InstitutionenMedizin > Zentren des Universitätsklinikums Regensburg > EHealth Competence Center
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.3390/jpm13071141DOI
Stichwörter / Keywords; COVID-19; dataset; machine learning; vulnerability index
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-544945
Dokumenten-ID54494

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