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Rosero Perez, Paula Andrea ; Realpe Gonzalez, Juan Sebastián ; Salazar-Cabrera, Ricardo ; Restrepo, David ; López, Diego M. ; Blobel, Bernd

Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

Rosero Perez, Paula Andrea, Realpe Gonzalez, Juan Sebastián, Salazar-Cabrera, Ricardo , Restrepo, David , López, Diego M. and Blobel, Bernd (2023) Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index. Journal of Personalized Medicine 13 (7), p. 1141.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 20 Jul 2023 07:55
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.54494


Abstract

In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with ...

In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with COVID-19. Unfortunately, DANE did not consider multiple factors that could increase the risk of COVID-19 (in addition to demographic and health), such as environmental and mobility data (found in the related literature). The proposed multidimensional index considers variables of different types (unemployment rate, gross domestic product, citizens' mobility, vaccination data, and climatological and spatial information) in which the incidence of COVID-19 is calculated and compared with the incidence of the COVID-19 vulnerability index provided by DANE. The collection, data preparation, modeling, and evaluation phases of the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining methodology (CRISP-DM) were considered for constructing the index. The multidimensional index was evaluated using multiple machine learning models to calculate the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the main cities of Colombia. The results showed that the best-performing model to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Colombia is the Extra Trees Regressor algorithm, obtaining an R-squared of 0.829. This work is the first step toward a multidimensional analysis of COVID-19 risk factors, which has the potential to support decision making in public health programs. The results are also relevant for calculating vulnerability indexes for other viral diseases, such as dengue.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleJournal of Personalized Medicine
Publisher:MDPI
Open Access Type:Gold (without APC)
Place of Publication:BASEL
Volume:13
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:7
Page Range:p. 1141
Date15 July 2023
InstitutionsMedicine > Zentren des Universitätsklinikums Regensburg > eHealth Competence Center
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3390/jpm13071141DOI
Keywords; COVID-19; dataset; machine learning; vulnerability index
Dewey Decimal Classification600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-544945
Item ID54494

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