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Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index
Rosero Perez, Paula Andrea, Realpe Gonzalez, Juan Sebastián, Salazar-Cabrera, Ricardo
, Restrepo, David
, López, Diego M.
and Blobel, Bernd
(2023)
Multidimensional Machine Learning Model to Calculate a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index.
Journal of Personalized Medicine 13 (7), p. 1141.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 20 Jul 2023 07:55
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.54494
Abstract
In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with ...
In Colombia, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 6 March 2020. On 13 March 2023, Colombia registered 6,360,780 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, representing 12.18% of the total population. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) in Colombia published in 2020 a COVID-19 vulnerability index, which estimates the vulnerability (per city block) of being infected with COVID-19. Unfortunately, DANE did not consider multiple factors that could increase the risk of COVID-19 (in addition to demographic and health), such as environmental and mobility data (found in the related literature). The proposed multidimensional index considers variables of different types (unemployment rate, gross domestic product, citizens' mobility, vaccination data, and climatological and spatial information) in which the incidence of COVID-19 is calculated and compared with the incidence of the COVID-19 vulnerability index provided by DANE. The collection, data preparation, modeling, and evaluation phases of the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining methodology (CRISP-DM) were considered for constructing the index. The multidimensional index was evaluated using multiple machine learning models to calculate the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the main cities of Colombia. The results showed that the best-performing model to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Colombia is the Extra Trees Regressor algorithm, obtaining an R-squared of 0.829. This work is the first step toward a multidimensional analysis of COVID-19 risk factors, which has the potential to support decision making in public health programs. The results are also relevant for calculating vulnerability indexes for other viral diseases, such as dengue.
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| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Journal of Personalized Medicine | ||||
| Publisher: | MDPI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Access Type: | Gold (without APC) | ||||
| Place of Publication: | BASEL | ||||
| Volume: | 13 | ||||
| Number of Issue or Book Chapter: | 7 | ||||
| Page Range: | p. 1141 | ||||
| Date | 15 July 2023 | ||||
| Institutions | Medicine > Zentren des Universitätsklinikums Regensburg > eHealth Competence Center | ||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | ; COVID-19; dataset; machine learning; vulnerability index | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-544945 | ||||
| Item ID | 54494 |
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