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Kozak, Jakob ; Nagl, Cathrine ; Nagl, Maximilian ; Beracha, Eli ; Schäfers, Wolfgang

Does Real Estate Determine REIT Bond Risk Premia?

Kozak, Jakob , Nagl, Cathrine, Nagl, Maximilian , Beracha, Eli und Schäfers, Wolfgang (2025) Does Real Estate Determine REIT Bond Risk Premia? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 09 Apr 2025 05:11
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.76518


Zusammenfassung

This study is the first to examine the real estate-specific determinants of REIT bond risk premia. Using a dataset of 33,857 U.S. REIT bond yield spreads and 24 explanatory variables, we predict REIT bond yield spreads with a non-parametric artificial neural network algorithm and interpret the model’s predictions using the explainable machine learning method Accumulated Local Effect Plots (ALE). ...

This study is the first to examine the real estate-specific determinants of REIT bond risk premia. Using a dataset of 33,857 U.S. REIT bond yield spreads and 24 explanatory variables, we predict REIT bond yield spreads with a non-parametric artificial neural network algorithm and interpret the model’s predictions using the explainable machine learning method Accumulated Local Effect Plots (ALE). We report evidence of a direct real estate factor for U.S. REIT bond yield spreads proxied by real estate market total return and REIT property type. In addition, we find a property-type diversification risk premium for REIT bonds, indicating that there is no economic benefit in the form of lower cost of bond debt for most property-type diversification at the REIT-level. We argue that this is due to higher management and valuation complexity of diversified REIT portfolios. This study’s findings have relevant implications for REIT portfolio strategy and REIT capital structure decisions, as we show that specialized REITs generally have lower bond debt costs compared to diversified REITs. Moreover, a better understanding of the drivers influencing REIT bond risk premia helps investors to effectively manage bond portfolio risks.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftJournal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
Verlag:Springer Nature
Datum12 Juni 2025
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Lehrstuhl für Immobilienmanagement (Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schäfers)
Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1007/s11146-025-10018-7DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsYield spread, Bond risk premia, REIT, Diversification risk premium, Machine learning, Neural network
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-765186
Dokumenten-ID76518

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