Direkt zum Inhalt

Hruschka, Harald

Using a heterogeneous multinomial probit model with a neural net extension to model brand choice

Hruschka, Harald (2007) Using a heterogeneous multinomial probit model with a neural net extension to model brand choice. Journal of Forecasting 26 (2), S. 113-127.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 05 Aug 2009 13:22
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.160


Zusammenfassung

The multinomial probit model introduced here combines heterogeneity across households with flexibility of the (deterministic) utility function. To achieve flexibility deterministic utility is approximated by a neural net of the multilayer perceptron type. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method serves to estimate heterogeneous multinomial probit models which fulfill economic restrictions on signs of ...

The multinomial probit model introduced here combines heterogeneity across households with flexibility of the (deterministic) utility function. To achieve flexibility deterministic utility is approximated by a neural net of the multilayer perceptron type. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method serves to estimate heterogeneous multinomial probit models which fulfill economic restrictions on signs of (marginal) effects of predictors (e.g., negative for price). For empirical choice data the heterogeneous multinomial probit model extended by a multilayer perceptron clearly outperforms all the other models studied. Moreover, replacing homogeneous by heterogeneous reference price mechanisms and thus allowing price expectations to be formed differently across households also leads to better model performance. Mean utility differences and mean elasticities w.r.t. price and price deviation from reference price demonstrate that models with linear utility and nonlinear utility approximated by a multilayer perceptron lead to very different implications for managerial decision making. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftJournal of Forecasting
Verlag:JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
Ort der Veröffentlichung:CHICHESTER
Band:26
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:2
Seitenbereich:S. 113-127
Datum2007
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Marketing (Prof. Dr. Harald Hruschka)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1002/for.1013DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsEMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS; MARKOV-CHAIN; PRICE; BEHAVIOR; NETWORKS; choice model; neural networks; probit model; hierarchical Bayesian modeling; marketing
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 650 Management
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
Dokumenten-ID160

Bibliographische Daten exportieren

Nur für Besitzer und Autoren: Kontrollseite des Eintrags

nach oben