Natural Frequencies Improve Bayesian Reasoning in Simple and Complex Inference Tasks

URN to cite this document:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-342502
DOI to cite this document:: 10.5283/epub.34250

Hoffrage, U. ; Krauss, Stefan

; Martignon, L. ; Gigerenzer, G.

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Date of publication of this fulltext: 10 Aug 2016 09:17

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Abstract

Representing statistical information in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural frequencies has been demonstrated in a variety of applied domains such as medicine, law, and education. Yet all the research and applications so far have been limited to situations where one dichotomous cue is used to ...