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Representation Facilitates Rea-soning: What Natural Frequencies Are and What They Are Not
Hoffrage, U., Gigerenzer, G., Krauss, Stefan
and Martignon, L.
(2002)
Representation Facilitates Rea-soning: What Natural Frequencies Are and What They Are Not.
Cognition 84 (3), pp. 343-352.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 16 Aug 2016 10:39
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.34315
Abstract
A good representation can be crucial for finding the solution to a problem. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (Psychol. Rev. 102 (1995) 684; Psychol. Rev. 106 (1999) 425) have shown that representations in terms of natural frequencies, rather than conditional probabilities, facilitate the computation of a cause's probability (or frequency) given an effect – a problem that is usually referred to as Bayesian ...
A good representation can be crucial for finding the solution to a problem. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (Psychol. Rev. 102 (1995) 684; Psychol. Rev. 106 (1999) 425) have shown that representations in terms of natural frequencies, rather than conditional probabilities, facilitate the computation of a cause's probability (or frequency) given an effect – a problem that is usually referred to as Bayesian reasoning. They also have shown that normalized frequencies – which are not natural frequencies – do not lead to computational facilitation, and consequently, do not enhance people's performance. Here, we correct two misconceptions propagated in recent work (Cognition 77 (2000) 197; Cognition 78 (2001) 247; Psychol. Rev. 106 (1999) 62; Organ. Behav. Hum. Decision Process. 82 (2000) 217): normalized frequencies have been mistaken for natural frequencies and, as a consequence, “nested sets” and the “subset principle” have been proposed as new explanations. These new terms, however, are nothing more than vague labels for the basic properties of natural frequencies.
Involved Institutions
Details
| Item type | Article | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Cognition | ||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume: | 84 | ||||||
| Number of Issue or Book Chapter: | 3 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 343-352 | ||||||
| Date | July 2002 | ||||||
| Institutions | Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||||
| Identification Number |
| ||||||
| Keywords | Bayesian inference; Probability judgements; Representation of information; Natural frequencies | ||||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 500 Science > 510 Mathematics | ||||||
| Status | Published | ||||||
| Refereed | Unknown | ||||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Unknown | ||||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-343152 | ||||||
| Item ID | 34315 |
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