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Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure

Roberts, David R. ; Bahn, Volker ; Ciuti, Simone ; Boyce, Mark S. ; Elith, Jane ; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta ; Hauenstein, Severin ; Lahoz-Monfort, José J. ; Schröder, Boris ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Warton, David I. ; Wintle, Brendan A. ; Hartig, Florian ; Dormann, Carsten F.


Ecological data often show temporal, spatial, hierarchical (random effects), or phylogenetic structure. Modern statistical approaches are increasingly accounting for such dependencies. However, when performing cross-validation, these structures are regularly ignored, resulting in serious underestimation of predictive error. One cause for the poor performance of uncorrected (random) ...


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