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Productivity of Fagus sylvatica under climate change – A Bayesian analysis of risk and uncertainty using the model 3-PG

Augustynczik, Andrey L. D. ; Hartig, Florian ; Minunno, Francesco ; Kahle, Hans-Peter ; Diaconu, Daniela ; Hanewinkel, Marc ; Yousefpour, Rasoul


To assess the long-term impacts of forest management interventions under climate change, process based models, which allow to predict transient dynamics under environmental change, are arguably the most suitable tools available. A challenge for using these models for management decisions, however, is their higher parametric uncertainty, which propagates to predictions and thus into the decision ...


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