Does urban tourism attractiveness affect young adult migration in Germany?

Schäfer, Philipp and Just, Tobias (2018) Does urban tourism attractiveness affect young adult migration in Germany? Journal of Property Investment and Finance 36 (1), pp. 68-90.

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Other URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-01-2017-0008

Abstract

Abstract

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether urban tourism attractiveness affects young adult migration within Germany. Currently, factors like urban attractiveness, environmental qualities or vicinity to amenities play a more important role for the migration of young adults than in the past. This has highly asymmetric implications for the housing (and commercial real estate) markets in cities with an abundance of urban attractiveness, compared to cities without such attractions.

Design/methodology/approach
This analysis focuses on the internal migration of young adults (18-30-year-olds). First, some stylized facts regarding migration patterns are presented by means of descriptive and cluster analyses (k-means methodology) with respect to the net immigration rate for the two years, 2004 and 2014. Second, ordinary least squares-regression analyses are used to estimate the connection between urban tourism attractiveness and migration.

Findings
Young adults in Germany predominantly migrate to cities. The authors find typical migration patterns, and the regression results indicate that young adult migration is highly correlated with the indicator measuring urban tourism attractiveness. This means that urban attractions matter for young adults. Finally, the authors also find that housing rents are correlated with urban tourism attractiveness.

Practical implications
Good city planning must not only be concerned with new industrial sites, but also about esthetic neighborhoods and, for example, attractive squares. Moreover, because city structures and urban amenities are both path dependent and expensive to change, it is likely that the winning cities of today will remain winners in the next decade, which is good news for risk-averse investors.

Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the paper provides the first empirical analysis of the connection between urban tourism attractiveness and the migration of young adults, in the context of German cities.