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Labour market forecasting in Germany: is disaggregation useful?

Weber, Enzo ; Zika, Gerd



Abstract

This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by sector in order to produce out-of-sample forecasts of aggregate employment. Forecast accuracy is compared to univariate models by using Clark/West tests. In an application to German data, it is evident that disaggregation significantly ...

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