Go to content
UR Home

Forecasting seasonal time series data: a Bayesian model averaging approach

Vosseler, Alexander ; Weber, Enzo



Abstract

A flexible Bayesian periodic autoregressive model is used for the prediction of quarterly and monthly time series data. As the unknown autoregressive lag order, the occurrence of structural breaks and their respective break dates are common sources of uncertainty these are treated as random quantities within the Bayesian framework. Since no analytical expressions for the corresponding marginal ...

plus


Owner only: item control page
  1. Homepage UR

University Library

Publication Server

Contact:

Publishing: oa@ur.de

Dissertations: dissertationen@ur.de

Research data: daten@ur.de

Contact persons