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Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

Fuchs, Johann ; Söhnlein, Doris ; Weber, Brigitte ; Weber, Enzo



Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by ...

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