Direkt zum Inhalt

Owner only: item control page
Deppner, Juergen ; Cajias, Marcelo

Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in Algorithm-Driven Hedonic Models: A Spatial Cross-Validation Approach

Deppner, Juergen and Cajias, Marcelo (2022) Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in Algorithm-Driven Hedonic Models: A Spatial Cross-Validation Approach. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 27 Jul 2022 04:40
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52657


Abstract

Data-driven machine learning algorithms have initiated a paradigm shift in hedonic house price and rent modeling through their ability to capture highly complex and non-monotonic relationships. Their superior accuracy compared to parametric model alternatives has been demonstrated repeatedly in the literature. However, the statistical independence of the data implicitly assumed by ...

Data-driven machine learning algorithms have initiated a paradigm shift in hedonic house price and rent modeling through their ability to capture highly complex and non-monotonic relationships. Their superior accuracy compared to parametric model alternatives has been demonstrated repeatedly in the literature. However, the statistical independence of the data implicitly assumed by resampling-based error estimates is unlikely to hold in a real estate context as price-formation processes in property markets are inherently spatial, which leads to spatial dependence structures in the data. When performing conventional cross-validation techniques for model selection and model assessment, spatial dependence between training and test data may lead to undetected overfitting and overoptimistic perception of predictive power. This study sheds light on the bias in cross-validation errors of tree-based algorithms induced by spatial autocorrelation and proposes a bias-reduced spatial cross-validation strategy. The findings confirm that error estimates from non-spatial resampling methods are overly optimistic, whereas spatially conscious techniques are more dependable and can increase generalizability. As accurate and unbiased error estimates are crucial to automated valuation methods, our results prove helpful for applications including, but not limited to, mass appraisal, credit risk management, portfolio allocation and investment decision making.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleThe Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
Publisher:Springer
Open Access Type:DEAL (Springer)
Date13 July 2022
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Professur für Immobilienentwicklung (Prof. Dr. Stephan Bone-Winkel)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1007/s11146-022-09915-yDOI
KeywordsHedonic modeling · Machine learning · Spatial autocorrelation · Spatial cross-validation · Mass appraisal · Automated valuation models
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-526571
Item ID52657

Export bibliographical data

Owner only: item control page

nach oben