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Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in Algorithm-Driven Hedonic Models: A Spatial Cross-Validation Approach
Deppner, Juergen
and Cajias, Marcelo
(2022)
Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in Algorithm-Driven Hedonic Models: A Spatial Cross-Validation Approach.
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 27 Jul 2022 04:40
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52657
Abstract
Data-driven machine learning algorithms have initiated a paradigm shift in hedonic house price and rent modeling through their ability to capture highly complex and non-monotonic relationships. Their superior accuracy compared to parametric model alternatives has been demonstrated repeatedly in the literature. However, the statistical independence of the data implicitly assumed by ...
Data-driven machine learning algorithms have initiated a paradigm shift in hedonic house price and rent modeling through their ability to capture highly complex and non-monotonic relationships. Their superior accuracy compared to parametric model alternatives has been demonstrated repeatedly in the literature. However, the statistical independence of the data implicitly assumed by resampling-based error estimates is unlikely to hold in a real estate context as price-formation processes in property markets are inherently spatial, which leads to spatial dependence structures in the data. When performing conventional cross-validation techniques for model selection and model assessment, spatial dependence between training and test data may lead to undetected overfitting and overoptimistic perception of predictive power. This study sheds light on the bias in cross-validation errors of tree-based algorithms induced by spatial autocorrelation and proposes a bias-reduced spatial cross-validation strategy. The findings confirm that error estimates from non-spatial resampling methods are overly optimistic, whereas spatially conscious techniques are more dependable and can increase generalizability. As accurate and unbiased error estimates are crucial to automated valuation methods, our results prove helpful for applications including, but not limited to, mass appraisal, credit risk management, portfolio allocation and investment decision making.
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Details
| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics | ||||
| Publisher: | Springer | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Access Type: | DEAL (Springer) | ||||
| Date | 13 July 2022 | ||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Professur für Immobilienentwicklung (Prof. Dr. Stephan Bone-Winkel) | ||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | Hedonic modeling · Machine learning · Spatial autocorrelation · Spatial cross-validation · Mass appraisal · Automated valuation models | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-526571 | ||||
| Item ID | 52657 |
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