Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models

URN to cite this document:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528201
DOI to cite this document:: 10.5283/epub.52820

Oberpriller, Johannes

; Cameron, David R. ; Dietze, Michael C. ; Hartig, Florian

; Coulson, Tim

License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
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Date of publication of this fulltext: 26 Aug 2022 13:22

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Abstract

Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we ...