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Oberpriller, Johannes ; Cameron, David R. ; Dietze, Michael C. ; Hartig, Florian ; Coulson, Tim

Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models

Oberpriller, Johannes , Cameron, David R., Dietze, Michael C., Hartig, Florian and Coulson, Tim (2021) Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models. Ecology Letters 24 (6), pp. 1251-1261.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 26 Aug 2022 13:22
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52820


Abstract

Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we ...

Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we explain why these problems occur and propose a framework for robust inference with complex computer simulations. After having identified that model error is more consequential in complex computer simulations, due to their more pronounced nonlinearity and interconnectedness, we discuss as possible solutions data rebalancing and adding bias corrections on model outputs or processes during or after the calibration procedure. We illustrate the methods in a case study, using a dynamic vegetation model. We conclude that developing better methods for robust inference of complex computer simulations is vital for generating reliable predictions of ecosystem responses.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleEcology Letters
Publisher:Wiley
Place of Publication:HOBOKEN
Volume:24
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:6
Page Range:pp. 1251-1261
Date30 March 2021
InstitutionsBiology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1111/ele.13728DOI
KeywordsBayesian Inference; bias correction; biased models; data imbalance; robust inference
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528201
Item ID52820

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