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Oberpriller, Johannes ; Cameron, David R. ; Dietze, Michael C. ; Hartig, Florian ; Coulson, Tim

Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models

Oberpriller, Johannes , Cameron, David R., Dietze, Michael C., Hartig, Florian und Coulson, Tim (2021) Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models. Ecology Letters 24 (6), S. 1251-1261.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 26 Aug 2022 13:22
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.52820


Zusammenfassung

Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we ...

Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we explain why these problems occur and propose a framework for robust inference with complex computer simulations. After having identified that model error is more consequential in complex computer simulations, due to their more pronounced nonlinearity and interconnectedness, we discuss as possible solutions data rebalancing and adding bias corrections on model outputs or processes during or after the calibration procedure. We illustrate the methods in a case study, using a dynamic vegetation model. We conclude that developing better methods for robust inference of complex computer simulations is vital for generating reliable predictions of ecosystem responses.



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Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftEcology Letters
Verlag:Wiley
Ort der Veröffentlichung:HOBOKEN
Band:24
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:6
Seitenbereich:S. 1251-1261
Datum30 März 2021
InstitutionenBiologie und Vorklinische Medizin > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Arbeitsgruppe Theoretische Ökologie (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1111/ele.13728DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsBayesian Inference; bias correction; biased models; data imbalance; robust inference
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 580 Pflanzen (Botanik)
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528201
Dokumenten-ID52820

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