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Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models
Oberpriller, Johannes
, Cameron, David R., Dietze, Michael C., Hartig, Florian
and Coulson, Tim
(2021)
Towards robust statistical inference for complex computer models.
Ecology Letters 24 (6), pp. 1251-1261.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 26 Aug 2022 13:22
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52820
Abstract
Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we ...
Ecologists increasingly rely on complex computer simulations to forecast ecological systems. To make such forecasts precise, uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be reduced and correctly propagated to model outputs. Naively using standard statistical techniques for this task, however, can lead to bias and underestimation of uncertainties in parameters and predictions. Here, we explain why these problems occur and propose a framework for robust inference with complex computer simulations. After having identified that model error is more consequential in complex computer simulations, due to their more pronounced nonlinearity and interconnectedness, we discuss as possible solutions data rebalancing and adding bias corrections on model outputs or processes during or after the calibration procedure. We illustrate the methods in a case study, using a dynamic vegetation model. We conclude that developing better methods for robust inference of complex computer simulations is vital for generating reliable predictions of ecosystem responses.
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Details
| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Ecology Letters | ||||
| Publisher: | Wiley | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place of Publication: | HOBOKEN | ||||
| Volume: | 24 | ||||
| Number of Issue or Book Chapter: | 6 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1251-1261 | ||||
| Date | 30 March 2021 | ||||
| Institutions | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) | ||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | Bayesian Inference; bias correction; biased models; data imbalance; robust inference | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-528201 | ||||
| Item ID | 52820 |
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