Direkt zum Inhalt

Nagl, Matthias ; Nagl, Maximilian ; Rösch, Daniel

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning methods for loss given default

Nagl, Matthias, Nagl, Maximilian und Rösch, Daniel (2022) Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning methods for loss given default. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 8, S. 1076083.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 28 Nov 2022 16:34
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.53278


Zusammenfassung

Machine learning has increasingly found its way into the credit risk literature. When applied to forecasting credit risk parameters, the approaches have been found to outperform standard statistical models. The quantification of prediction uncertainty is typically not analyzed in the machine learning credit risk setting. However, this is vital to the interests of risk managers and regulators ...

Machine learning has increasingly found its way into the credit risk literature. When applied to forecasting credit risk parameters, the approaches have been found to outperform standard statistical models. The quantification of prediction uncertainty is typically not analyzed in the machine learning credit risk setting. However, this is vital to the interests of risk managers and regulators alike as its quantification increases the transparency and stability in risk management and reporting tasks. We fill this gap by applying the novel approach of deep evidential regression to loss given defaults (LGDs). We evaluate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for LGD estimation techniques and apply explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods to analyze the main drivers. We find that aleatoric uncertainty is considerably larger than epistemic uncertainty. Hence, the majority of uncertainty in LGD estimates appears to be irreducible as it stems from the data itself.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftFrontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Verlag:Frontiers
Band:8
Seitenbereich:S. 1076083
Datum15 Dezember 2022
Zusätzliche Informationen (Öffentlich)vorliegende Daten werden nach Verlagspublikation ergänzt
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.3389/fams.2022.1076083DOI
Stichwörter / Keywordsmachine learning, explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), credit risk, uncertainty, loss given default
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-532787
Dokumenten-ID53278

Bibliographische Daten exportieren

Nur für Besitzer und Autoren: Kontrollseite des Eintrags

nach oben