THE IMPACT OF ELECTION RESULTS ON THE MEMBER NUMBERS OF THE LARGE PARTIES IN BAVARIA AND GERMANY

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relations between the numbers of members of various parties and their results in the elections in Bavaria and in Germany. Deriving from the finding that there is a strong time-delayed correlation between these data-sets for the two largest parties in Bavaria, we show in a simulation based on the Sznajd model that such a correlation leads to very stable majorities, just as in Bavaria.