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Polynomial Chaos Expansion: Efficient Evaluation and Estimation of Computational Models
Fehrle, Daniel, Heiberger, Christopher and Huber, Johannes
(2025)
Polynomial Chaos Expansion: Efficient Evaluation and Estimation of Computational Models.
Computational Economics.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 27 Jan 2025 05:47
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.74757
Abstract
We apply Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to surrogate time-consuming repeated model evaluations for different parameter values. PCE represents a random variable, the quantity of interest (QoI), as a series expansion of other random variables, the inputs. Repeated evaluations become inexpensive by treating uncertain parameters of a model as inputs, and an element of a model’s solution, e.g., the ...
We apply Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to surrogate time-consuming repeated model evaluations for different parameter values. PCE represents a random variable, the quantity of interest (QoI), as a series expansion of other random variables, the inputs. Repeated evaluations become inexpensive by treating uncertain parameters of a model as inputs, and an element of a model’s solution, e.g., the policy function, second moments, or the posterior kernel as the QoI. We introduce the theory of PCE and apply it to the standard real business cycle model as an illustrative example. We analyze the convergence behavior of PCE for different QoIs and its efficiency when used for estimation. The results are promising both for local and global solution methods.
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Details
| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Computational Economics | ||||
| Publisher: | Springer Nature Link | ||||
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| Open Access Type: | DEAL (Springer) | ||||
| Date | 23 January 2025 | ||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Theoretische Volkswirtschaft (Prof. Dr. Lutz Arnold) | ||||
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| Keywords | Polynomial chaos expansion · Parameter inference · Parameter uncertainty · Solution methods | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Partially | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-747570 | ||||
| Item ID | 74757 |
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