Direkt zum Inhalt

Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen ; Hartig, Florian

Calibration, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Ecological Models - A Review

Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen und Hartig, Florian (2026) Calibration, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Ecological Models - A Review. Ecology Letters 29 (4), e70375.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 30 Apr 2026 08:54
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.79362


Zusammenfassung

Ecologists increasingly use complex models to predict and understand ecological systems and their responses to external drivers or anthropogenic pressures. An ongoing challenge in this context is quantifying and reducing uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and structure and understanding their implications for model predictions. Three major methodological fields have emerged in this context: ...

Ecologists increasingly use complex models to predict and understand ecological systems and their responses to external drivers or anthropogenic pressures. An ongoing challenge in this context is quantifying and reducing uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and structure and understanding their implications for model predictions. Three major methodological fields have emerged in this context: sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and model inversion or calibration. While these three methods are an integral part of any modelling or forecasting process, the corresponding literature is often scattered, and distinct terminology and definitions are used in different methodological and scientific contexts. Here, we review and connect these three fields and discuss best practices for their practical implementation with a focus on complex ecological models. We classify relevant types of uncertainty, discuss the complementary roles of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, give an overview of available calibration methods and emphasize the importance of effective communication of uncertainty. We conclude that using state-of-the-art methods for understanding model behaviour as well as consistently accounting for all uncertainties is essential for correctly understanding model predictions and thus forms the basis for a responsible use of models in ecological decision making.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftEcology Letters
Verlag:Wiley
Band:29
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:4
Seitenbereich:e70375
Datum26 April 2026
InstitutionenBiologie und Vorklinische Medizin > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Arbeitsgruppe Theoretische Ökologie (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1111/ele.70375DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsBayesian inference | informal likelihood | inverse modelling | parameter estimation | predictive uncertainty | sensitivity analysis | simulation models | uncertainty propagation
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 500 Naturwissenschaften
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 570 Biowissenschaften, Biologie
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 580 Pflanzen (Botanik)
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-793622
Dokumenten-ID79362

Bibliographische Daten exportieren

Nur für Besitzer und Autoren: Kontrollseite des Eintrags

nach oben