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Improving disaggregated short-term food inflation forecasts with webscraped data
Beer, Christian, Ferstl, Robert and Graf, Bernhard (2026) Improving disaggregated short-term food inflation forecasts with webscraped data. International Journal of Forecasting 42 (3), pp. 1047-1068.Date of publication of this fulltext: 03 Jun 2026 08:58
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.79537
Abstract
Recent studies suggest that webscraped price data can enhance the timeliness and accuracy of inflation nowcasts. In a forecasting competition against univariate time series benchmarks, we evaluate nowcasts and short-horizon forecasts using daily price quotes for Austria. Our findings indicate that webscraped data deliver accurate nowcasts several weeks earlier than official releases, because they ...
Recent studies suggest that webscraped price data can enhance the timeliness and accuracy of inflation nowcasts. In a forecasting competition against univariate time series benchmarks, we evaluate nowcasts and short-horizon forecasts using daily price quotes for Austria. Our findings indicate that webscraped data deliver accurate nowcasts several weeks earlier than official releases, because they enable the production of reliable estimates early in the reference month. Additionally, we demonstrate that nowcasts remain robust to structural breaks in food price dynamics. To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine whether webscraped nowcasts can improve disaggregated short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead. Although direct forecasts at higher levels of aggregation are slightly more accurate, indirect forecasts derived from disaggregated data provide superior insights into the underlying dynamics of sub-components. These findings have implications for policymakers aiming to develop an effective system for real-time monitoring of inflation dynamics at a granular level.
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| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | International Journal of Forecasting | ||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Access Type: | DEAL (Elsevier) | ||||
| Volume: | 42 | ||||
| Number of Issue or Book Chapter: | 3 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1047-1068 | ||||
| Date | 22 March 2026 | ||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre | ||||
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| Keywords | Webscraping; Online food prices; Inflation forecasting; Time series models; Nowcasting | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Partially | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-795378 | ||||
| Item ID | 79537 |
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