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Beer, Christian ; Ferstl, Robert ; Graf, Bernhard

Improving disaggregated short-term food inflation forecasts with webscraped data

Beer, Christian, Ferstl, Robert and Graf, Bernhard (2026) Improving disaggregated short-term food inflation forecasts with webscraped data. International Journal of Forecasting 42 (3), pp. 1047-1068.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 03 Jun 2026 08:58
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.79537


Abstract

Recent studies suggest that webscraped price data can enhance the timeliness and accuracy of inflation nowcasts. In a forecasting competition against univariate time series benchmarks, we evaluate nowcasts and short-horizon forecasts using daily price quotes for Austria. Our findings indicate that webscraped data deliver accurate nowcasts several weeks earlier than official releases, because they ...

Recent studies suggest that webscraped price data can enhance the timeliness and accuracy of inflation nowcasts. In a forecasting competition against univariate time series benchmarks, we evaluate nowcasts and short-horizon forecasts using daily price quotes for Austria. Our findings indicate that webscraped data deliver accurate nowcasts several weeks earlier than official releases, because they enable the production of reliable estimates early in the reference month. Additionally, we demonstrate that nowcasts remain robust to structural breaks in food price dynamics. To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine whether webscraped nowcasts can improve disaggregated short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead. Although direct forecasts at higher levels of aggregation are slightly more accurate, indirect forecasts derived from disaggregated data provide superior insights into the underlying dynamics of sub-components. These findings have implications for policymakers aiming to develop an effective system for real-time monitoring of inflation dynamics at a granular level.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleInternational Journal of Forecasting
Publisher:Elsevier
Open Access Type:DEAL (Elsevier)
Volume:42
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:3
Page Range:pp. 1047-1068
Date22 March 2026
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.02.003DOI
KeywordsWebscraping; Online food prices; Inflation forecasting; Time series models; Nowcasting
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-795378
Item ID79537

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