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Building homes for tax revenues? Spatial evidence on the fiscal effects of residential land development
Article
Range, Julius Leonhard and Grafe, Albert Erasmus
(2026)
Building homes for tax revenues? Spatial evidence on the fiscal effects of residential land development.
Land Use Policy 170, p. 108220.
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.79795
Abstract
This study quantifies the tax revenue effects of residential land development in Germany. Whereas existing research and policy debates have concentrated on the fiscal returns of commercial land expansion, the tax revenue effects of residential development remain largely unexplored. We estimate the impacts of increases in living space and settlement area on municipal tax revenues using spatial ...
This study quantifies the tax revenue effects of residential land development in Germany. Whereas existing research and policy debates have concentrated on the fiscal returns of commercial land expansion, the tax revenue effects of residential development remain largely unexplored. We estimate the impacts of increases in living space and settlement area on municipal tax revenues using spatial instrumental variable regressions and a nationwide cross-sectional dataset covering all German municipalities. Accounting for spatial spillovers and potential endogeneity, we document a significant positive effect of residential living space expansion on municipal income tax revenues, with substantial heterogeneity between urban and rural municipalities and across regions with differing economic performance. A corresponding analysis of broader settlement area expansion indicates similarly positive effects on total municipal tax revenues. Multiple robustness checks support the validity of these findings. Finally, we outline a simple framework for approximating the fiscal payback period of residential land development by relating estimated revenue effects to average municipal development costs.
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Details
| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Land Use Policy | ||||
| Publisher | Elsevier | ||||
| Open Access Type | DEAL (Elsevier) | ||||
| Volume | 170 | ||||
| Page Range | p. 108220 | ||||
| Date | 10 July 2026 | ||||
| Date of publication | 16 Jul 2026 04:15 | ||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS | ||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | Tax revenues, Land consumption, Spatial regression, Instrumental variable regression | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-797954 | ||||
| Item ID | 79795 |
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