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Range, Julius Leonhard ; Grafe, Albert Erasmus

Building homes for tax revenues? Spatial evidence on the fiscal effects of residential land development

Article

Range, Julius Leonhard and Grafe, Albert Erasmus (2026) Building homes for tax revenues? Spatial evidence on the fiscal effects of residential land development. Land Use Policy 170, p. 108220.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.79795


Abstract

This study quantifies the tax revenue effects of residential land development in Germany. Whereas existing research and policy debates have concentrated on the fiscal returns of commercial land expansion, the tax revenue effects of residential development remain largely unexplored. We estimate the impacts of increases in living space and settlement area on municipal tax revenues using spatial ...

This study quantifies the tax revenue effects of residential land development in Germany. Whereas existing research and policy debates have concentrated on the fiscal returns of commercial land expansion, the tax revenue effects of residential development remain largely unexplored. We estimate the impacts of increases in living space and settlement area on municipal tax revenues using spatial instrumental variable regressions and a nationwide cross-sectional dataset covering all German municipalities. Accounting for spatial spillovers and potential endogeneity, we document a significant positive effect of residential living space expansion on municipal income tax revenues, with substantial heterogeneity between urban and rural municipalities and across regions with differing economic performance. A corresponding analysis of broader settlement area expansion indicates similarly positive effects on total municipal tax revenues. Multiple robustness checks support the validity of these findings. Finally, we outline a simple framework for approximating the fiscal payback period of residential land development by relating estimated revenue effects to average municipal development costs.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleLand Use Policy
PublisherElsevier
Open Access TypeDEAL (Elsevier)
Volume170
Page Rangep. 108220
Date10 July 2026
Date of publication16 Jul 2026 04:15
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108220DOI
KeywordsTax revenues, Land consumption, Spatial regression, Instrumental variable regression
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-797954
Item ID79795

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