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Weber, Enzo

A Simultaneous Unobserved Components Analysis of US Output and the Great Moderation

Monograph

Weber, Enzo (2009) A Simultaneous Unobserved Components Analysis of US Output and the Great Moderation. Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 432, Working Paper, Regensburg.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.8613


Abstract

In an unobserved components framework of US output trend and cycle, this paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between permanent and transitory innovations. For the purpose of identification, strategies of augmenting the cyclical dynamics as well as allowing for shifts in volatility are proposed. In the early 1980s, substantial predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative ...

In an unobserved components framework of US output trend and cycle, this paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between permanent and transitory innovations. For the purpose of identification, strategies of augmenting the cyclical dynamics as well as allowing for shifts in volatility are proposed. In the early 1980s, substantial predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative spillovers of trend impulses, consistent with real business cycle theories. The coincident reduction of macroeconomic volatility mainly traces back to pronounced dampening of transitory disturbances. This ascribes an important role to the mitigation of policy interventions in explaining the Great Moderation.



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Details

Item typeMonograph (Working Paper)
Place of PublicationRegensburg
Series of the University of Regensburg:Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Volume432
Number of Pages17
Date10 July 2009
Date of publication05 Aug 2009 14:00
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie
Interdisciplinary Subject NetworkNot selected
Identification Number
ValueType
RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:8613RePEc Handle
Classification
NotationType
C32Journal of Economics Literature Classification
E32Journal of Economics Literature Classification
KeywordsUnobserved Components, Trend, Cycle, Identification, Great Moderation
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedNo, this document will not be refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-86130
Item ID8613

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