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A Simultaneous Unobserved Components Analysis of US Output and the Great Moderation
Monograph
Weber, Enzo (2009) A Simultaneous Unobserved Components Analysis of US Output and the Great Moderation. Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 432, Working Paper, Regensburg.DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.8613
Abstract
In an unobserved components framework of US output trend and cycle, this paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between permanent and transitory innovations. For the purpose of identification, strategies of augmenting the cyclical dynamics as well as allowing for shifts in volatility are proposed. In the early 1980s, substantial predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative ...
In an unobserved components framework of US output trend and cycle, this paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between permanent and transitory innovations. For the purpose of identification, strategies of augmenting the cyclical dynamics as well as allowing for shifts in volatility are proposed. In the early 1980s, substantial predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative spillovers of trend impulses, consistent with real business cycle theories. The coincident reduction of macroeconomic volatility mainly traces back to pronounced dampening of transitory disturbances. This ascribes an important role to the mitigation of policy interventions in explaining the Great Moderation.
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Details
| Item type | Monograph (Working Paper) | ||||||
| Place of Publication | Regensburg | ||||||
| Series of the University of Regensburg: | Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft | ||||||
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| Volume | 432 | ||||||
| Number of Pages | 17 | ||||||
| Date | 10 July 2009 | ||||||
| Date of publication | 05 Aug 2009 14:00 | ||||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie | ||||||
| Interdisciplinary Subject Network | Not selected | ||||||
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| Classification |
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| Keywords | Unobserved Components, Trend, Cycle, Identification, Great Moderation | ||||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics | ||||||
| Status | Published | ||||||
| Refereed | No, this document will not be refereed | ||||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-86130 | ||||||
| Item ID | 8613 |
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