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Betz, Jennifer ; Kellner, Ralf ; Rösch, Daniel

Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates

Betz, Jennifer , Kellner, Ralf und Rösch, Daniel (2021) Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 70 (3), S. 619-644.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 15 Feb 2022 07:29
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.46338


Zusammenfassung

Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. ...

Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. Accordingly, their LGD predictions may be biased and underestimate loss rates of defaulted loans. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework for DRTs and LGDs. In comparison to previous approaches, we derive final DRT estimates for loans in default which enables consistent LGD predictions conditional on the time in default. Furthermore, adequate unconditional LGD predictions can be derived. The proposed method is applicable to duration processes in general where the final outcomes depend on the duration of the process and are affected by censoring. By this means, we avoid bias of parameter estimates to ensure adequate predictions.



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Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftJournal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C
Verlag:Wiley
Ort der Veröffentlichung:HOBOKEN
Band:70
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:3
Seitenbereich:S. 619-644
Datum12 März 2021
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1111/rssc.12474DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsFORECASTING LOSS; RECOVERY RATES; GIVEN-DEFAULT; REGRESSION; CHAPTER-11; DURATION; MODELS; LOANS; LGD; default resolution time; Global Credit Data; loss given default; random effects
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 310 Statistik
300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-463381
Dokumenten-ID46338

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