| Veröffentlichte Version Download ( PDF | 909kB) | Lizenz: Creative Commons Namensnennung-NichtKommerziell-KeineBearbeitung 4.0 International |
Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates
Betz, Jennifer
, Kellner, Ralf und Rösch, Daniel
(2021)
Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 70 (3), S. 619-644.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 15 Feb 2022 07:29
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.46338
Zusammenfassung
Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. ...
Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. Accordingly, their LGD predictions may be biased and underestimate loss rates of defaulted loans. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework for DRTs and LGDs. In comparison to previous approaches, we derive final DRT estimates for loans in default which enables consistent LGD predictions conditional on the time in default. Furthermore, adequate unconditional LGD predictions can be derived. The proposed method is applicable to duration processes in general where the final outcomes depend on the duration of the process and are affected by censoring. By this means, we avoid bias of parameter estimates to ensure adequate predictions.
Alternative Links zum Volltext
Beteiligte Einrichtungen
Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C | ||||
| Verlag: | Wiley | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ort der Veröffentlichung: | HOBOKEN | ||||
| Band: | 70 | ||||
| Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels: | 3 | ||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 619-644 | ||||
| Datum | 12 März 2021 | ||||
| Institutionen | Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch) | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
| ||||
| Stichwörter / Keywords | FORECASTING LOSS; RECOVERY RATES; GIVEN-DEFAULT; REGRESSION; CHAPTER-11; DURATION; MODELS; LOANS; LGD; default resolution time; Global Credit Data; loss given default; random effects | ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 310 Statistik 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Zum Teil | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-463381 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 46338 |
Downloadstatistik
Downloadstatistik