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Credit line exposure at default modelling using Bayesian mixed effect quantile regression
Betz, Jennifer
, Nagl, Maximilian
und Rösch, Daniel
(2022)
Credit line exposure at default modelling using Bayesian mixed effect quantile regression.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), S. 1-38.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 21 Jun 2022 16:50
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.52437
Zusammenfassung
For banks, credit lines play an important role exposing both liquidity and credit risk. In the advanced internal ratings-based approach, banks are obliged to use their own estimates of exposure at default using credit conversion factors. For volatile segments, additional downturn estimates are required. Using the world's largest database of defaulted credit lines from the US and Europe and ...
For banks, credit lines play an important role exposing both liquidity and credit risk. In the advanced internal ratings-based approach, banks are obliged to use their own estimates of exposure at default using credit conversion factors. For volatile segments, additional downturn estimates are required. Using the world's largest database of defaulted credit lines from the US and Europe and macroeconomic variables, we apply a Bayesian mixed effect quantile regression and find strongly varying covariate effects over the whole conditional distribution of credit conversion factors and especially between United States and Europe. If macroeconomic variables do not provide adequate downturn estimates, the model is enhanced by random effects. Results from European credit lines suggest that high conversion factors are driven by random effects rather than observable covariates. We further show that the impact of the economic surrounding highly depends on the level of utilization one year prior default, suggesting that credit lines with high drawdown potential are most affected by economic downturns and hence bear the highest risk in crisis periods.
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Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) | ||||
| Verlag: | Oxford Univ. Press | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ort der Veröffentlichung: | OXFORD | ||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 1-38 | ||||
| Datum | 12 Juni 2022 | ||||
| Institutionen | Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch) | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
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| Stichwörter / Keywords | LIQUIDITY RISK; FORECASTS; credit conversion factor; credit risk; exposure at default; global credit data; quantile regression; random effects | ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Ja | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-524377 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 52437 |
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