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Nagl, Maximilian

Intricacy of cryptocurrency returns

Nagl, Maximilian (2024) Intricacy of cryptocurrency returns. Economics Letters 239, S. 111746.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 28 Mai 2024 07:44
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.58318


Zusammenfassung

This paper quantifies the intricacy, i.e., non-linearity and interactions of predictor variables, in explaining cryptocurrency returns. Using data from several thousand cryptocurrencies spanning 2014 to 2022, we observe a notably high level of intricacy. This provides a quantitative measure why linear models are often outperformed by machine learning algorithms in predicting cryptocurrency ...

This paper quantifies the intricacy, i.e., non-linearity and interactions of predictor variables, in explaining cryptocurrency returns. Using data from several thousand cryptocurrencies spanning 2014 to 2022, we observe a notably high level of intricacy. This provides a quantitative measure why linear models are often outperformed by machine learning algorithms in predicting cryptocurrency returns. Furthermore, we document that the intricacy in these predictions is considerably larger compared to stocks. Our analysis reveals that interactions are gaining importance over time, while individual non-linearity of the drivers is diminishing. This adds to the emerging literature on spillover effects between cryptocurrencies, traditional finance and the economy. This finding is important for investors as well as regulators as the high intricacy proposes challenges to both actors in the market.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftEconomics Letters
Verlag:Elsevier
Band:239
Seitenbereich:S. 111746
Datum7 Mai 2024
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111746DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsCryptocurrency returns, Machine learning, Explainable artificial intelligence, Intricacy
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 310 Statistik
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-583186
Dokumenten-ID58318

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