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Large dynamic covariance matrices and portfolio selection with a heterogeneous autoregressive model
Honig, Igor und Kircher, Felix
(2025)
Large dynamic covariance matrices and portfolio selection with a heterogeneous autoregressive model.
Journal of Banking & Finance 178, S. 107505.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 17 Jul 2025 06:36
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.77199
Zusammenfassung
We propose a novel framework for modeling large dynamic covariance matrices via heterogeneous autoregressive volatility and correlation components. Our model provides direct forecasts of monthly covariance matrices and is flexible, parsimonious and simple to estimate using standard least squares methods. We address the problem of parameter estimation risks by employing nonlinear shrinkage ...
We propose a novel framework for modeling large dynamic covariance matrices via heterogeneous autoregressive volatility and correlation components. Our model provides direct forecasts of monthly covariance matrices and is flexible, parsimonious and simple to estimate using standard least squares methods. We address the problem of parameter estimation risks by employing nonlinear shrinkage methods, making our framework applicable in high dimensions. We perform a comprehensive empirical out-of-sample analysis and find significant statistical and economic improvements over common benchmark models. For minimum variance portfolios with over a thousand stocks, the annualized portfolio standard deviation improves to 8.92% compared to 9.75–10.43% for DCC-type models.
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Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Journal of Banking & Finance | ||||
| Verlag: | Elsevier | ||||
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| Band: | 178 | ||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 107505 | ||||
| Datum | 2 Juli 2025 | ||||
| Institutionen | Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch) | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
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| Klassifikation |
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| Stichwörter / Keywords | Time-varying covariance matrix, High dimensions, Heterogeneous autoregressive model, Minimum variance portfolio, Markowitz portfolio optimization | ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Ja | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-771997 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 77199 |
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