Direkt zum Inhalt

Büchter, Theresa ; Eichler, Andreas ; Steib, Nicole ; Binder, Karin ; Böcherer-Linder, Katharina ; Krauss, Stefan ; Vogel, Markus

How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning

Büchter, Theresa , Eichler, Andreas , Steib, Nicole, Binder, Karin , Böcherer-Linder, Katharina, Krauss, Stefan und Vogel, Markus (2022) How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning. Mathematics 10 (9), S. 1558.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 22 Jun 2022 08:32
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.52374


Zusammenfassung

Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the dealing with, and understanding of, Bayesian situations. This includes various aspects such as calculating a conditional probability (performance), assessing the effects of changes to the parameters of a formula on the ...

Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the dealing with, and understanding of, Bayesian situations. This includes various aspects such as calculating a conditional probability (performance), assessing the effects of changes to the parameters of a formula on the result (covariation) and adequately interpreting and explaining the results of a formula (communication). Bayesian Reasoning is crucial in several non-mathematical disciplines such as medicine and law. However, even experts from these domains struggle to reason in a Bayesian manner. Therefore, it is desirable to develop a training course for this specific audience regarding the different aspects of Bayesian Reasoning. In this paper, we present an evidence-based development of such training courses by considering relevant prior research on successful strategies for Bayesian Reasoning (e.g., natural frequencies and adequate visualizations) and on the 4C/ID model as a promising instructional approach. The results of a formative evaluation are described, which show that students from the target audience (i.e., medicine or law) increased their Bayesian Reasoning skills and found taking part in the training courses to be relevant and fruitful for their professional expertise.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftMathematics
Verlag:MDPI
Ort der Veröffentlichung:BASEL
Band:10
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:9
Seitenbereich:S. 1558
DatumMai 2022
InstitutionenMathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.3390/math10091558DOI
000794623700001Web of Science
Klassifikation
NotationArt
MSC: 97U10; 97U50; 97U80; 97C30; 97C70MSC
Stichwörter / KeywordsNATURAL FREQUENCIES; MODELING EXAMPLES; TREE DIAGRAMS; METAANALYSIS; PERFORMANCE; PRINCIPLES; ATTENTION; MEDICINE; CHILDREN; DESIGN; Bayesian Reasoning; Bayes' rule; visualization; unit square; double tree; natural frequencies; 4C; ID model
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-523745
Dokumenten-ID52374

Bibliographische Daten exportieren

Nur für Besitzer und Autoren: Kontrollseite des Eintrags

nach oben