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Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis
Strohsal, Till und Weber, Enzo (2010) Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis. Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 442, Working Paper.Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 31 Mai 2010 13:28
Monographie
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.15152
Zusammenfassung
The present work provides an economic explanation of a well-known (seeming) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) - the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We derive from EHT that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence cointegrated with the spread. We model the premium as being proportional to the integrated variance ...
The present work provides an economic explanation of a well-known (seeming) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) - the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We derive from EHT that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence cointegrated with the spread. We model the premium as being proportional to the integrated variance of excess returns and further propose a cointegration test. Simulating the distribution of the test statistic we actually find cointegration relations between premia and spreads in US data. The EHT appears to perform better than previously thought.
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Details
| Dokumentenart | Monographie (Working Paper) | ||||||
| Schriftenreihe der Universität Regensburg: | Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft | ||||||
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| Band: | 442 | ||||||
| Datum | 31 Mai 2010 | ||||||
| Institutionen | Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie | ||||||
| Themenverbund | Immobilien- und Kapitalmärkte | ||||||
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| Stichwörter / Keywords | Expectations Hypothesis, Holding Premium, Persistence, Cointegration, GARCH | ||||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft | ||||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||||
| Begutachtet | Nie, das Dokument wird nicht wissenschaftlich begutachtet werden | ||||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Ja | ||||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-151523 | ||||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 15152 |
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