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Müller, Marcel Philipp ; Stöckl, Sebastian ; Zimmermann, Steffen ; Heinrich, Bernd

Decision Support for IT Investment Projects

Müller, Marcel Philipp, Stöckl, Sebastian, Zimmermann, Steffen and Heinrich, Bernd (2016) Decision Support for IT Investment Projects. Business Information Systems Engeneering (BISE) / Wirtschaftsinformatik Vol. 58 (No. 6), pp. 381-396.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 08 Jun 2016 08:15
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.33853


Abstract

Managerial flexibilities have to be taken into account in ex-ante decision-making on IT investment projects (ITIPs). In many papers of the IS literature, standard financial option pricing models are used to value such managerial flexibilities. Based on a review of the related literature, the paper critically discusses the assumptions of the most frequently used financial option pricing model, ...

Managerial flexibilities have to be taken into account in ex-ante decision-making on IT investment projects (ITIPs). In many papers of the IS literature, standard financial option pricing models are used to value such managerial flexibilities. Based on a review of the related literature, the paper critically discusses the assumptions of the most frequently used financial option pricing model, namely the Black-Scholes model, arguing for relaxed assumptions that better represent the characteristics of ITIPs. The authors find that existing real option analysis approaches featured in the IS, Finance, and Economics literature are unable to consider more than two of our relaxed assumptions. Consequently, they present their own approach in form of a simulation model for the valuation of real options in ITIPs which offers a better representation of the characteristics of ITIPs by taking the discounted cash-flows and the runtime to be uncertain as well as the market to be incomplete. Based on these modifications of the Black-Scholes model's assumptions, it is found that the resulting option value contains idiosyncratic risk that has to be taken into account in ITIP decision making. For the realistic case of risk averse decision makers, the consideration of idiosyncratic risk usually leads to a lower risk-adjusted option value, compared to one calculated by means of the Black-Scholes model. This confirms the perception of managers who feel that financial option pricing models frequently overvalue ITIPs and hence may induce flawed investment decisions.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleBusiness Information Systems Engeneering (BISE) / Wirtschaftsinformatik
Publisher:SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Place of Publication:HEIDELBERG
Volume:Vol. 58
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:No. 6
Page Range:pp. 381-396
DateMarch 2016
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Informatics and Data Science > Department Information Systems > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1007/s12599-016-0423-7DOI
KeywordsINFORMATION-TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS; OPTION-PRICING THEORY; REAL OPTIONS; MEAN REVERSION; COMMODITY PRICES; DESIGN SCIENCE; BUSINESS VALUE; VALUATION; RISK; UNCERTAINTY; Real option analysis; Business value of IT investment projects; Simulation model; Black-Scholes model; IT investment project decisions; Assumptions; Characteristics of IT investment projects
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
600 Technology > 650 Management & auxiliary services
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-338535
Item ID33853

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