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Müller, Marcel Philipp ; Stöckl, Sebastian ; Zimmermann, Steffen ; Heinrich, Bernd

Decision Support for IT Investment Projects

Müller, Marcel Philipp, Stöckl, Sebastian, Zimmermann, Steffen und Heinrich, Bernd (2016) Decision Support for IT Investment Projects. Business Information Systems Engeneering (BISE) / Wirtschaftsinformatik Vol. 58 (No. 6), S. 381-396.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 08 Jun 2016 08:15
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.33853


Zusammenfassung

Managerial flexibilities have to be taken into account in ex-ante decision-making on IT investment projects (ITIPs). In many papers of the IS literature, standard financial option pricing models are used to value such managerial flexibilities. Based on a review of the related literature, the paper critically discusses the assumptions of the most frequently used financial option pricing model, ...

Managerial flexibilities have to be taken into account in ex-ante decision-making on IT investment projects (ITIPs). In many papers of the IS literature, standard financial option pricing models are used to value such managerial flexibilities. Based on a review of the related literature, the paper critically discusses the assumptions of the most frequently used financial option pricing model, namely the Black-Scholes model, arguing for relaxed assumptions that better represent the characteristics of ITIPs. The authors find that existing real option analysis approaches featured in the IS, Finance, and Economics literature are unable to consider more than two of our relaxed assumptions. Consequently, they present their own approach in form of a simulation model for the valuation of real options in ITIPs which offers a better representation of the characteristics of ITIPs by taking the discounted cash-flows and the runtime to be uncertain as well as the market to be incomplete. Based on these modifications of the Black-Scholes model's assumptions, it is found that the resulting option value contains idiosyncratic risk that has to be taken into account in ITIP decision making. For the realistic case of risk averse decision makers, the consideration of idiosyncratic risk usually leads to a lower risk-adjusted option value, compared to one calculated by means of the Black-Scholes model. This confirms the perception of managers who feel that financial option pricing models frequently overvalue ITIPs and hence may induce flawed investment decisions.



Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftBusiness Information Systems Engeneering (BISE) / Wirtschaftsinformatik
Verlag:SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Ort der Veröffentlichung:HEIDELBERG
Band:Vol. 58
Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels:No. 6
Seitenbereich:S. 381-396
DatumMärz 2016
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Informatik und Data Science > Fachbereich Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1007/s12599-016-0423-7DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsINFORMATION-TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS; OPTION-PRICING THEORY; REAL OPTIONS; MEAN REVERSION; COMMODITY PRICES; DESIGN SCIENCE; BUSINESS VALUE; VALUATION; RISK; UNCERTAINTY; Real option analysis; Business value of IT investment projects; Simulation model; Black-Scholes model; IT investment project decisions; Assumptions; Characteristics of IT investment projects
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 650 Management
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-338535
Dokumenten-ID33853

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