The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and

URN to cite this document:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-342730
DOI to cite this document:: 10.5283/epub.34273

Hertwig, R. ; Benz, B. ; Krauss, Stefan

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Date of publication of this fulltext: 12 Aug 2016 07:47

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Abstract

According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought ...