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The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and
Hertwig, R., Benz, B. and Krauss, Stefan
(2008)
The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and.
Cognition 108 (3), pp. 740-753.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 12 Aug 2016 07:47
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.34273
Abstract
According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought ...
According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought some whisky”), causal relationships (“Smile and the world smiles with you”), and can indicate a collection of sets rather than their intersection (as in “He invited friends and colleagues to the party”). When “and” is used in word problems researching the conjunction fallacy, the conjunction rule, which assumes the logical operator ∧, therefore cannot be mechanically invoked as a norm. Across several studies, we used different methods of probing people’s understanding of and-conjunctions, and found evidence that many of those respondents who violated the conjunction rule in their probability or frequency judgments inferred a meaning of and that differs from the logical operator ∧. We argue that these findings have implications for whether judgments involving ambiguous and-conjunctions that violate the conjunction rule should be considered manifestations of fallacious reasoning or of reasonable pragmatic and semantic inferences.
Involved Institutions
Details
| Item type | Article | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Cognition | ||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume: | 108 | ||||||
| Number of Issue or Book Chapter: | 3 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 740-753 | ||||||
| Date | September 2008 | ||||||
| Institutions | Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | Conjunction fallacy; Pragmatic and semantic inferences; Rationality | ||||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 370 Education 500 Science > 510 Mathematics | ||||||
| Status | Published | ||||||
| Refereed | Unknown | ||||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Unknown | ||||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-342730 | ||||||
| Item ID | 34273 |
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