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Hertwig, R. ; Benz, B. ; Krauss, Stefan

The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and

Hertwig, R., Benz, B. and Krauss, Stefan (2008) The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and. Cognition 108 (3), pp. 740-753.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 12 Aug 2016 07:47
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.34273


Abstract

According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought ...

According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought some whisky”), causal relationships (“Smile and the world smiles with you”), and can indicate a collection of sets rather than their intersection (as in “He invited friends and colleagues to the party”). When “and” is used in word problems researching the conjunction fallacy, the conjunction rule, which assumes the logical operator ∧, therefore cannot be mechanically invoked as a norm. Across several studies, we used different methods of probing people’s understanding of and-conjunctions, and found evidence that many of those respondents who violated the conjunction rule in their probability or frequency judgments inferred a meaning of and that differs from the logical operator ∧. We argue that these findings have implications for whether judgments involving ambiguous and-conjunctions that violate the conjunction rule should be considered manifestations of fallacious reasoning or of reasonable pragmatic and semantic inferences.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleCognition
Publisher:Elsevier
Volume:108
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:3
Page Range:pp. 740-753
DateSeptember 2008
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1016/j.cognition.2008.06.008DOI
000259851600014Web of Science ID
KeywordsConjunction fallacy; Pragmatic and semantic inferences; Rationality
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 370 Education
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusPublished
RefereedUnknown
Created at the University of RegensburgUnknown
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-342730
Item ID34273

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