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The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and
Hertwig, R., Benz, B. und Krauss, Stefan
(2008)
The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and.
Cognition 108 (3), S. 740-753.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 12 Aug 2016 07:47
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.34273
Zusammenfassung
According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought ...
According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought some whisky”), causal relationships (“Smile and the world smiles with you”), and can indicate a collection of sets rather than their intersection (as in “He invited friends and colleagues to the party”). When “and” is used in word problems researching the conjunction fallacy, the conjunction rule, which assumes the logical operator ∧, therefore cannot be mechanically invoked as a norm. Across several studies, we used different methods of probing people’s understanding of and-conjunctions, and found evidence that many of those respondents who violated the conjunction rule in their probability or frequency judgments inferred a meaning of and that differs from the logical operator ∧. We argue that these findings have implications for whether judgments involving ambiguous and-conjunctions that violate the conjunction rule should be considered manifestations of fallacious reasoning or of reasonable pragmatic and semantic inferences.
Beteiligte Einrichtungen
Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Cognition | ||||||
| Verlag: | Elsevier | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band: | 108 | ||||||
| Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels: | 3 | ||||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 740-753 | ||||||
| Datum | September 2008 | ||||||
| Institutionen | Mathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
| ||||||
| Stichwörter / Keywords | Conjunction fallacy; Pragmatic and semantic inferences; Rationality | ||||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 370 Erziehung, Schul- und Bildungswesen 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik | ||||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||||
| Begutachtet | Unbekannt / Keine Angabe | ||||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Unbekannt / Keine Angabe | ||||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-342730 | ||||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 34273 |
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