Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

Name: Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness
Published: 2018
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, Einstellung, tree diagram, 510 Mathematik

URN zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-376937
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments:: 10.5283/epub.37693

Weber, Patrick ; Binder, Karin

; Krauss, Stefan

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Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 06 Sep 2018 07:18

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Details

Dokumentenart:	Datensatz
Open Access Art:	Primärpublikation
Datum:	2018
Institutionen:	Mathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Stichwörter / Keywords:	Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, Einstellung, tree diagram
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation:	500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
Status:	Im Druck
Begutachtet:	Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstanden:	Ja
Dokumenten-ID:	37693

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Zusammenfassung

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell & Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...