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Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

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Weber, Patrick ; Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan
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Date of publication of this fulltext: 06 Sep 2018 07:18


For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell & Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...


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