Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

Name: Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness
Published: 2018
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, Einstellung, tree diagram, 510 Mathematics

URN to cite this document:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-376937
DOI to cite this document:: 10.5283/epub.37693

Weber, Patrick ; Binder, Karin

; Krauss, Stefan

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Date of publication of this fulltext: 06 Sep 2018 07:18

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Item type:	Dataset
Date:	2018
Institutions:	Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Keywords:	Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, Einstellung, tree diagram
Dewey Decimal Classification:	500 Science > 510 Mathematics
Status:	In Press
Refereed:	Yes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of Regensburg:	Yes
Item ID:	37693

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Abstract

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell & Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...