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Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

Weber, Patrick, Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan (2018) Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness. [Dataset]

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Date of publication of this fulltext: 06 Sep 2018 07:18

Abstract

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell & Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...

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Item type:Dataset
Date:2018
Institutions:Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Keywords:Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, Einstellung, tree diagram
Dewey Decimal Classification:500 Science > 510 Mathematics
Status:In Press
Refereed:Yes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of Regensburg:Yes
Item ID:37693
Owner only: item control page

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