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Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness

URN to cite this document:
urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-379537
DOI to cite this document:
10.5283/epub.37953
Weber, Patrick ; Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan
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License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
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Date of publication of this fulltext: 08 Nov 2018 16:57



Abstract

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell and Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...

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