Go to content
UR Home

Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness

Weber, Patrick, Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan (2018) Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness. Frontiers in Psychology 9, pp. 1-14.

[img]
Preview
PDF
Download (1MB)
Date of publication of this fulltext: 08 Nov 2018 16:57

at publisher (via DOI)

Other URL: http://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01833, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01833/full


Abstract

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell and Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...

plus


Export bibliographical data



Item type:Article
Date:12 October 2018
Institutions:Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Projects:Open Access Publizieren (DFG)
Identification Number:
ValueType
10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01833DOI
Keywords:Bayesian reasoning, natural frequencies, probabilities, einstellung, tree diagram
Dewey Decimal Classification:500 Science > 510 Mathematics
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of Regensburg:Yes
Item ID:37953
Owner only: item control page

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

  1. Homepage UR

University Library

Publication Server

Contact:

Publishing: oa@ur.de

Dissertations: dissertationen@ur.de

Research data: daten@ur.de

Contact persons