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Weber, Patrick ; Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan

Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness

Weber, Patrick, Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan (2018) Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness. Frontiers in Psychology 9, p. 1833.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 08 Nov 2018 16:57
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.37953


Abstract

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell and Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. ...

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995). In a recent meta-analysis, McDowell and Jacobs (2017) showed that presenting a task in natural frequency format increases performance rates to 24% compared to only 4% when the same task is presented in probability format. Nevertheless, on average three quarters of participants in their meta-analysis failed to obtain the correct solution for such a task in frequency format. In this paper, we present an empirical study on what participants typically do wrong when confronted with natural frequencies. We found that many of them did not actually use natural frequencies for their calculations, but translated them back into complicated probabilities instead. This switch from the intuitive presentation format to a less intuitive calculation format will be discussed within the framework of psychological theories (e.g., the Einstellung effect).



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleFrontiers in Psychology
Publisher:Frontiers
Place of Publication:LAUSANNE
Volume:9
Page Range:p. 1833
Date12 October 2018
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01833DOI
WOS:000447153400001Web of Science ID
KeywordsBayesian reasoning; natural frequencies; probabilities; einstellung; tree diagram
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-379537
Item ID37953

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