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Lorenz, Felix ; Willwersch, Jonas ; Cajias, Marcelo ; Fuerst, Franz

Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis

Lorenz, Felix , Willwersch, Jonas , Cajias, Marcelo and Fuerst, Franz (2022) Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis. Real Estate Economics.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 18 Apr 2023 04:45
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.54074


Abstract

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results ...

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U-shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleReal Estate Economics
Publisher:Wiley
Open Access Type:DEAL (Wiley)
Date31 May 2022
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Lehrstuhl für Immobilienmanagement (Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schäfers)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1111/1540-6229.12397DOI
Keywordsblack box, hedonic modeling, interpretable machine learning, rental estimation, residential real estate
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-540745
Item ID54074

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