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Lorenz, Felix ; Willwersch, Jonas ; Cajias, Marcelo ; Fuerst, Franz

Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis

Lorenz, Felix , Willwersch, Jonas , Cajias, Marcelo und Fuerst, Franz (2022) Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis. Real Estate Economics.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 18 Apr 2023 04:45
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.54074


Zusammenfassung

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results ...

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U-shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.



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Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftReal Estate Economics
Verlag:Wiley
Datum31 Mai 2022
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Lehrstuhl für Immobilienmanagement (Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schäfers)
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1111/1540-6229.12397DOI
Stichwörter / Keywordsblack box, hedonic modeling, interpretable machine learning, rental estimation, residential real estate
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-540745
Dokumenten-ID54074

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