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Pöppel, Elisa ; Schiller, Alexander ; Weinfurtner, Lucas

Analyzing voluntary employee turnover: A data-driven explanatory modeling approach

Article

Pöppel, Elisa, Schiller, Alexander and Weinfurtner, Lucas (2026) Analyzing voluntary employee turnover: A data-driven explanatory modeling approach. Decision Support Systems 208, p. 114713.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.79682


Abstract

A widespread shortage of skilled employees, which also includes the increasing difficulty to retain talented employees by limiting voluntary employee turnover, impedes company success. To gather insights on voluntary employee turnover, previous research has conducted explanatory research focused on theory-driven hypotheses, or utilized predictive models, aiming to predict which employees are most ...

A widespread shortage of skilled employees, which also includes the increasing difficulty to retain talented employees by limiting voluntary employee turnover, impedes company success. To gather insights on voluntary employee turnover, previous research has conducted explanatory research focused on theory-driven hypotheses, or utilized predictive models, aiming to predict which employees are most likely to leave the company based on historical data. In contrast, we propose a methodology that combines predictive data mining methods, causal decision trees, and an expert validation to yield firm-specific actionable explanations for employee turnover. The proposed methodology is applied to a real-world case of a mechanical engineering company. Here, our data-driven causal analysis identifies patterns of voluntary service technician turnover, which are validated by domain experts and used to derive targeted measures for reducing future employee turnover. The results are shown to provide valuable insights, adding to the a priori knowledge of the experts, revealing discrepancies between subjective opinions and quantitative results, and substantially informing the company's decision-making. A follow-up study demonstrates that almost all of the derived measures are being realized and indicates early positive effects on employee turnover.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleDecision Support Systems
PublisherElsevier
Open Access TypeDEAL (Elsevier)
Volume208
Page Rangep. 114713
Date15 June 2026
Date of publication23 Jun 2026 05:24
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Informatics and Data Science > Department Information Systems > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1016/j.dss.2026.114713DOI
KeywordsPeople analytics, Workforce analytics, Employee turnover, Employee churn, Attrition, Retention
Dewey Decimal Classification000 Computer science, information & general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-796825
Item ID79682

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