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Matros, Philipp ; Vilsmeier, Johannes

Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle

Matros, Philipp und Vilsmeier, Johannes (2012) Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 30/2012.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 29 Aug 2012 06:10
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.25800


Zusammenfassung

We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to ...

We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS). Moreover, we also derive an indicator for the systemic risk in the US financial sector. We find that the PoDs are superior to CDS in identifying the high risk banks prior to the Lehman crisis.


Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftDeutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper
Sonstige Reihe:Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper
Band:30/2012
Datum28 August 2012
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Ökonometrie (Prof. Dr. Rolf Tschernig)
Klassifikation
NotationArt
C14Journal of Economics Literature Classification
C32Journal of Economics Literature Classification
G01Journal of Economics Literature Classification
Stichwörter / KeywordsEntropy Principle, Risk Neutral Density, Probability of Default, Financial Stability Indicator, Credit Default Swaps
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-258006
Dokumenten-ID25800

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