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Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle
Matros, Philipp und Vilsmeier, Johannes (2012) Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 30/2012.Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 29 Aug 2012 06:10
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.25800
Zusammenfassung
We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to ...
We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS). Moreover, we also derive an indicator for the systemic risk in the US financial sector. We find that the PoDs are superior to CDS in identifying the high risk banks prior to the Lehman crisis.
Beteiligte Einrichtungen
Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper | ||||||||
| Sonstige Reihe: | Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band: | 30/2012 | ||||||||
| Datum | 28 August 2012 | ||||||||
| Institutionen | Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Ökonometrie (Prof. Dr. Rolf Tschernig) | ||||||||
| Klassifikation |
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| Stichwörter / Keywords | Entropy Principle, Risk Neutral Density, Probability of Default, Financial Stability Indicator, Credit Default Swaps | ||||||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft | ||||||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Zum Teil | ||||||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-258006 | ||||||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 25800 |
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