We present a theory for the Kondo spin-1/2 effect in strongly correlated quantum dots. The theory is applicable at any temperature and voltage. It is based on a quadratic Keldysh effective action parametrized by a universal function. We provide a general analytical form for the tunneling density of states through this universal function for which we propose a simple microscopic model. We apply our theory to the highly asymmetric Anderson model with U = infinity and describe its strong-coupling limit, weak-coupling limit, and crossover region within a single analytical expression. We compare our results with a numerical renormalization group in equilibrium and with a real-time renormalization group out of equilibrium and show that the universal shapes of the linear and differential conductance obtained in our theory and in these theories are very close to each other in a wide range of temperatures and voltages. In particular, as in the real-time renormalization group, we predict that at the Kondo voltage the differential conductance is equal to 2/3 of its maximum. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevB.87.121302