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Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan ; Bruckmeier, Georg

Effects of visualizing statistical information – An empirical study on tree diagrams and 2 x 2 tables

Article

Binder, Karin , Krauss, Stefan and Bruckmeier, Georg (2015) Effects of visualizing statistical information – An empirical study on tree diagrams and 2 x 2 tables. Frontiers in Psychology 2015 (6), pp. 1-18.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.32286


Abstract

In their research articles, scholars often use 2 x 2 tables or tree diagrams including natural frequencies in order to illustrate Bayesian reasoning situations to their peers. Interestingly, the effect of these visualizations on participants' performance has not been tested empirically so far (apart from explicit training studies). In the present article, we report on an empirical study (3 x 2 x ...

In their research articles, scholars often use 2 x 2 tables or tree diagrams including natural frequencies in order to illustrate Bayesian reasoning situations to their peers. Interestingly, the effect of these visualizations on participants' performance has not been tested empirically so far (apart from explicit training studies). In the present article, we report on an empirical study (3 x 2 x 2 design) in which we systematically vary visualization (no visualization vs. 2 x 2 table vs. tree diagram) and information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) for two contexts (medical vs. economical context; not a factor of interest). Each of N = 259 participants (students of age 16-18) had to solve two typical Bayesian reasoning tasks (mammography problem" and "economics problem"). The hypothesis is that 2 x 2 tables and tree diagrams especially when natural frequencies are included can foster insight into the notoriously difficult structure of Bayesian reasoning situations. In contrast to many other visualizations (e.g., icon arrays, Euler diagrams), 2 x 2 tables and tree diagrams have the advantage that they can be constructed easily. The implications of our findings for teaching Bayesian reasoning will be discussed.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleFrontiers in Psychology
PublisherFRONTIERS MEDIA SA
Open Access TypeGold (with APC)
Place of PublicationLAUSANNE
Volume2015
Number of Issue or Book Chapter6
Page Rangepp. 1-18
Date26 August 2015
Date of publication04 Aug 2015 12:17
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01186DOI
Article ID: 1186Other
WOS:000360046500001Web of Science ID
KeywordsECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY; DIAGNOSTIC INFERENCES; NATURAL FREQUENCIES; REPRESENTATION; GIGERENZER; HOFFRAGE; RISK; DIFFICULTIES; INSTRUCTION; UNCERTAINTY; Bayesian reasoning; 2 x 2 table; natural sampling tree; natural frequencies; visual representation
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 510 Mathematics
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-322860
Item ID32286

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