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On Modeling Risk Shocks
Dorofeenko, Victor, Lee, Gabriel, Salyer, Kevin and Strobel, Johannes (2016) On Modeling Risk Shocks. Working Paper.Date of publication of this fulltext: 28 Sep 2016 09:17
Monograph
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.34638
Abstract
Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) ...
Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is time-varying. We show that a small change in the fraction of risky types (a change from 1% to 2% of the population) can result in a large quantitative effect or a risk shock relative to standard models. The bankruptcy rate and the risk premium in the economy are very sensitive to a change in the composition of agents and is countercyclical.
Involved Institutions
Details
| Item type | Monograph (Working Paper) |
| Date | 18 May 2016 |
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Immobilienökonomie (Prof. Dr. Gabriel Lee) Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS > Lehrstuhl für Immobilienökonomie (Prof. Dr. Gabriel Lee) Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Immobilienenwirtschaft / IRE|BS |
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Status | Unknown |
| Refereed | No, this version has not been refereed yet (as with preprints) |
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Partially |
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-346381 |
| Item ID | 34638 |
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