Direkt zum Inhalt

Owner only: item control page
Dorofeenko, Victor ; Lee, Gabriel ; Salyer, Kevin ; Strobel, Johannes

On Modeling Risk Shocks

Dorofeenko, Victor, Lee, Gabriel, Salyer, Kevin and Strobel, Johannes (2016) On Modeling Risk Shocks. Working Paper.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 28 Sep 2016 09:17
Monograph
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.34638


Abstract

Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) ...

Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is time-varying. We show that a small change in the fraction of risky types (a change from 1% to 2% of the population) can result in a large quantitative effect or a risk shock relative to standard models. The bankruptcy rate and the risk premium in the economy are very sensitive to a change in the composition of agents and is countercyclical.


Involved Institutions


Details

Export bibliographical data

Owner only: item control page

nach oben