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Contemporaries' opinions of the Allied and Central Powers' performance during the First World War: measuring turning points in perception with sovereign debt prices

Jopp, Tobias A.



Abstract

Which events did contemporary investors deem important turning points in the First World War? We address this question by looking for structural breaks in the daily yields of six major belligerents' sovereign bonds traded in Amsterdam. Detected breaks are checked for robustness in an empirical model taking into account market liquidity, portfolio effects, exchange rates, short-term interest ...

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