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Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning
Binder, Karin
, Krauss, Stefan
, Schmidmaier, Ralf und Braun, Leah
(2021)
Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning.
Advances in Health Sciences Education 26 (3), S. 847-863.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 22 Jun 2022 07:48
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.51279
Zusammenfassung
When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they can correctly judge-the speed of these ...
When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they can correctly judge-the speed of these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities (9:59 min).The score diagnostic efficiency (calculated by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate and faster judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause cost and on the other hand might endanger patients' safety.
Beteiligte Einrichtungen
Details
| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Advances in Health Sciences Education | ||||||
| Verlag: | Springer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ort der Veröffentlichung: | DORDRECHT | ||||||
| Band: | 26 | ||||||
| Nummer des Zeitschriftenheftes oder des Kapitels: | 3 | ||||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 847-863 | ||||||
| Datum | Februar 2021 | ||||||
| Institutionen | Mathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
| ||||||
| Stichwörter / Keywords | ; Bayesian reasoning; Clinical reasoning; Diagnostic efficiency; Natural frequencies; Undergraduate medical students | ||||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik | ||||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Zum Teil | ||||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-512792 | ||||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 51279 |
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