Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

DOI to cite this document:: 10.5283/epub.51336

Weber, Patrick ; Krauss, Stefan

; Binder, Karin

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Date of publication of this fulltext: 15 Jun 2022 09:54

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Item type:	Conference or workshop item (Speech)
Date:	2018
Additional Information (public):	In M. A. Sorto, A. White, & L. Guyot (Eds.), Looking back, looking forward. Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Teaching Statistics (ICOTS10, July, 2018), Kyoto, Japan. Voorburg, The Netherlands: International Statistical Institute
Institutions:	Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Dewey Decimal Classification:	500 Science > 510 Mathematics
Status:	Unknown
Refereed:	Unknown
Created at the University of Regensburg:	Yes
Item ID:	51336

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Abstract

Empirical research has repeatedly proven the facilitating effect of “natural frequencies” when it comes to solving Bayesian problems (e.g., Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). However, in a study with 183 university students, we found that the beneficial strategy of translating complicated conditional probabilities (e.g., “80%”) into natural frequencies (e.g., “8 out of 10”) is for the most part not ...

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