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Weber, Patrick ; Krauss, Stefan ; Binder, Karin

Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness

Conference or workshop item

Weber, Patrick, Krauss, Stefan and Binder, Karin (2018) Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness. In: 10th International Conference on Teaching Statistics - ICOTS 10 2018, 8 – 13 July 2018, Kyoto, Japan.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.51336


Abstract

Empirical research has repeatedly proven the facilitating effect of “natural frequencies” when it comes to solving Bayesian problems (e.g., Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). However, in a study with 183 university students, we found that the beneficial strategy of translating complicated conditional probabilities (e.g., “80%”) into natural frequencies (e.g., “8 out of 10”) is for the most part not ...

Empirical research has repeatedly proven the facilitating effect of “natural frequencies” when it comes to solving Bayesian problems (e.g., Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995). However, in a study with 183 university students, we found that the beneficial strategy of translating complicated conditional probabilities (e.g., “80%”) into natural frequencies (e.g., “8 out of 10”) is for the most part not being used by participants. On the contrary, even when statistical information was presented in natural frequencies, most of the students translated the natural frequencies they had been given back into probabilities – with the unfortunate consequence that they could no longer solve the task.


Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeConference or workshop item (Speech)
Date2018
Date of publication15 Jun 2022 09:54
Additional Information (public)In M. A. Sorto, A. White, & L. Guyot (Eds.), Looking back, looking forward. Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Teaching Statistics (ICOTS10, July, 2018), Kyoto, Japan. Voorburg, The Netherlands: International Statistical Institute
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusUnknown
RefereedUnknown
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
Item ID51336

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