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Büchter, Theresa ; Eichler, Andreas ; Steib, Nicole ; Binder, Karin ; Böcherer-Linder, Katharina ; Krauss, Stefan ; Vogel, Markus

How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning

Article

Büchter, Theresa , Eichler, Andreas , Steib, Nicole, Binder, Karin , Böcherer-Linder, Katharina, Krauss, Stefan and Vogel, Markus (2022) How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning. Mathematics 10 (9), p. 1558.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.52374


Abstract

Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the dealing with, and understanding of, Bayesian situations. This includes various aspects such as calculating a conditional probability (performance), assessing the effects of changes to the parameters of a formula on the ...

Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the dealing with, and understanding of, Bayesian situations. This includes various aspects such as calculating a conditional probability (performance), assessing the effects of changes to the parameters of a formula on the result (covariation) and adequately interpreting and explaining the results of a formula (communication). Bayesian Reasoning is crucial in several non-mathematical disciplines such as medicine and law. However, even experts from these domains struggle to reason in a Bayesian manner. Therefore, it is desirable to develop a training course for this specific audience regarding the different aspects of Bayesian Reasoning. In this paper, we present an evidence-based development of such training courses by considering relevant prior research on successful strategies for Bayesian Reasoning (e.g., natural frequencies and adequate visualizations) and on the 4C/ID model as a promising instructional approach. The results of a formative evaluation are described, which show that students from the target audience (i.e., medicine or law) increased their Bayesian Reasoning skills and found taking part in the training courses to be relevant and fruitful for their professional expertise.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleMathematics
PublisherMDPI
Open Access TypeGold (mit APC - nicht UR)
Place of PublicationBASEL
Volume10
Number of Issue or Book Chapter9
Page Rangep. 1558
DateMay 2022
Date of publication22 Jun 2022 08:32
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3390/math10091558DOI
000794623700001Web of Science ID
Classification
NotationType
MSC: 97U10; 97U50; 97U80; 97C30; 97C70MSC
KeywordsNATURAL FREQUENCIES; MODELING EXAMPLES; TREE DIAGRAMS; METAANALYSIS; PERFORMANCE; PRINCIPLES; ATTENTION; MEDICINE; CHILDREN; DESIGN; Bayesian Reasoning; Bayes' rule; visualization; unit square; double tree; natural frequencies; 4C; ID model
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-523745
Item ID52374

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