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Nagl, Maximilian

Intricacy of cryptocurrency returns

Nagl, Maximilian (2024) Intricacy of cryptocurrency returns. Economics Letters 239, p. 111746.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 28 May 2024 07:44
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.58318


Abstract

This paper quantifies the intricacy, i.e., non-linearity and interactions of predictor variables, in explaining cryptocurrency returns. Using data from several thousand cryptocurrencies spanning 2014 to 2022, we observe a notably high level of intricacy. This provides a quantitative measure why linear models are often outperformed by machine learning algorithms in predicting cryptocurrency ...

This paper quantifies the intricacy, i.e., non-linearity and interactions of predictor variables, in explaining cryptocurrency returns. Using data from several thousand cryptocurrencies spanning 2014 to 2022, we observe a notably high level of intricacy. This provides a quantitative measure why linear models are often outperformed by machine learning algorithms in predicting cryptocurrency returns. Furthermore, we document that the intricacy in these predictions is considerably larger compared to stocks. Our analysis reveals that interactions are gaining importance over time, while individual non-linearity of the drivers is diminishing. This adds to the emerging literature on spillover effects between cryptocurrencies, traditional finance and the economy. This finding is important for investors as well as regulators as the high intricacy proposes challenges to both actors in the market.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleEconomics Letters
Publisher:Elsevier
Volume:239
Page Range:p. 111746
Date7 May 2024
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111746DOI
KeywordsCryptocurrency returns, Machine learning, Explainable artificial intelligence, Intricacy
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 310 General statistics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-583186
Item ID58318

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