Direkt zum Inhalt

Nagl, Matthias ; Nagl, Maximilian ; Rösch, Daniel

Non-linearity and the distribution of market-based loss rates

Article

Nagl, Matthias, Nagl, Maximilian and Rösch, Daniel (2024) Non-linearity and the distribution of market-based loss rates. OR Spectrum.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.59239


Abstract

We synthesize the extended linear beta regression with a neural network structure to model and predict the mean and precision of market-based loss rates. We can incorporate non-linearity in mean and precision in a flexible way and resolve the problem of specifying the underlying form in advance. As a novelty, we can show that the proportion of non-linearity for the mean estimates is 14.10% and ...

We synthesize the extended linear beta regression with a neural network structure to model and predict the mean and precision of market-based loss rates. We can incorporate non-linearity in mean and precision in a flexible way and resolve the problem of specifying the underlying form in advance. As a novelty, we can show that the proportion of non-linearity for the mean estimates is 14.10% and 80.37% for the precision estimates. This implies that especially the shape of the loss rate distribution entails a large amount of non-linearity and, thus, our approach consistently outperforms its linear counterpart. Furthermore, we derive trainable activation functions to allow a data-driven estimation of their shape. This is important if predictions have to be in a certain interval, e.g., (0, 1) or (0, ∞) . Conducting a scenario analysis, we observe that our estimated distributions are more refined compared to traditional models, thereby demonstrating their suitability for risk management purposes. These estimated distributions can assist financial institutions in better identifying diverse risk profiles among their creditors and across various macroeconomic states.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleOR Spectrum
PublisherSpringer
Open Access TypeDEAL (Springer)
Date21 September 2024
Date of publication24 Sep 2024 08:05
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1007/s00291-024-00787-7DOI
KeywordsLoss given default · Machine learning · Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) · Distribution
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgYes
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-592390
Item ID59239

Export bibliographical data

Owner only: item control page

nach oben