Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case

URN to cite this document:: urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-344878

Krauss, Stefan

; Martignon, L. ; Hoffrage, U.

PDF
(65kB) - Repository staff only

Date of publication of this fulltext: 02 Sep 2016 08:29

Alternative links to fulltext:DOI

Details

Export bibliographical data

Abstract

We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and ...