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Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case
Krauss, Stefan
, Martignon, L. und Hoffrage, U.
(1999)
Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case.
In: Magnani, Lorenzo und Nersessian, Nancy J. und Thagard, Paul, (eds.)
Model-based reasoning in scientific discovery.
Kluwer Academic/Plenum, New York, S. 165-179.
ISBN 0-306-46292-3.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 02 Sep 2016 08:29
Buchkapitel
Zusammenfassung
We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and ...
We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and Hoffrage’s “natural frequencies”, which are known to foster insight in Bayesian situations with one cue. Markov frequencies allow to visualize Bayesian inference problems even with an arbitrary number of cues.
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Details
| Dokumentenart | Buchkapitel | ||||
| ISBN | 0-306-46292-3 | ||||
| Buchtitel: | Model-based reasoning in scientific discovery | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verlag: | Kluwer Academic/Plenum | ||||
| Ort der Veröffentlichung: | New York | ||||
| Seitenbereich: | S. 165-179 | ||||
| Datum | 1999 | ||||
| Institutionen | Mathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
| ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Unbekannt / Keine Angabe | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Unbekannt / Keine Angabe | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-344878 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 34487 |
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