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Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case

Krauss, Stefan, Martignon, L. and Hoffrage, U. (1999) Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case. In: Magnani, Lorenzo and Nersessian, Nancy J. and Thagard, Paul, (eds.) Model-based reasoning in scientific discovery. Kluwer Academic/Plenum, New York, pp. 165-179. ISBN 0-306-46292-3.

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We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and ...


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Item type:Book section
Institutions:Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
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Dewey Decimal Classification:500 Science > 510 Mathematics
Created at the University of Regensburg:No
Item ID:34487
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