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Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case
Krauss, Stefan
, Martignon, L. and Hoffrage, U.
(1999)
Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case.
In: Magnani, Lorenzo and Nersessian, Nancy J. and Thagard, Paul, (eds.)
Model-based reasoning in scientific discovery.
Kluwer Academic/Plenum, New York, pp. 165-179.
ISBN 0-306-46292-3.
Date of publication of this fulltext: 02 Sep 2016 08:29
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Abstract
We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and ...
We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in “natural formats”. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humans’ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer and Hoffrage’s “natural frequencies”, which are known to foster insight in Bayesian situations with one cue. Markov frequencies allow to visualize Bayesian inference problems even with an arbitrary number of cues.
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| Item type | Book section | ||||
| ISBN | 0-306-46292-3 | ||||
| Title of Book: | Model-based reasoning in scientific discovery | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publisher: | Kluwer Academic/Plenum | ||||
| Place of Publication: | New York | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 165-179 | ||||
| Date | 1999 | ||||
| Institutions | Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss | ||||
| Identification Number |
| ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 500 Science > 510 Mathematics | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Unknown | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Unknown | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-344878 | ||||
| Item ID | 34487 |
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