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Bruckmaier, Georg ; Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan ; Kufner, Han-Min

An Eye-Tracking Study of Statistical Reasoning With Tree Diagrams and 2 × 2 Tables

Article

Bruckmaier, Georg, Binder, Karin , Krauss, Stefan and Kufner, Han-Min (2019) An Eye-Tracking Study of Statistical Reasoning With Tree Diagrams and 2 × 2 Tables. Frontiers in Psychology 10, p. 632.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.40626


Abstract

Changing the information format from probabilities into frequencies as well as employing appropriate visualizations such as tree diagrams or 2 x 2 tables are important tools that can facilitate people's statistical reasoning. Previous studies have shown that despite their widespread use in statistical textbooks, both of those visualization types are only of restricted help when they are provided ...

Changing the information format from probabilities into frequencies as well as employing appropriate visualizations such as tree diagrams or 2 x 2 tables are important tools that can facilitate people's statistical reasoning. Previous studies have shown that despite their widespread use in statistical textbooks, both of those visualization types are only of restricted help when they are provided with probabilities, but that they can foster insight when presented with frequencies instead. In the present study, we attempt to replicate this effect and also examine, by the method of eye tracking, why probabilistic 2 x 2 tables and tree diagrams do not facilitate reasoning with regard to Bayesian inferences (i.e., determining what errors occur and whether they can be explained by scan paths), and why the same visualizations are of great help to an individual when they are combined with frequencies. All ten inferences of N = 24 participants were based solely on tree diagrams or 2 x 2 tables that presented either the famous "mammography context" or an "economics context" (without additional textual wording). We first asked participants for marginal, conjoint, and (non-inverted) conditional probabilities (or frequencies), followed by related Bayesian tasks. While solution rates were higher for natural frequency questions as compared to probability versions, eye-tracking analyses indeed yielded noticeable differences regarding eye movements between correct and incorrect solutions. For instance, heat maps (aggregated scan paths) of distinct results differed remarkably, thereby making correct and faulty strategies visible in the line of theoretical classifications. Moreover, the inherent structure of 2 x 2 tables seems to help participants avoid certain Bayesian mistakes (e.g., "Fisherian" error) while tree diagrams seem to help steer them away from others (e.g., "joint occurrence"). We will discuss resulting educational consequences at the end of the paper.



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Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleFrontiers in Psychology
PublisherFrontiers
Place of PublicationLAUSANNE
Volume10
Page Rangep. 632
Date15 May 2019
Date of publication02 Aug 2019 08:29
InstitutionsMathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Identification Number
ValueType
10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00632DOI
WOS:000467962400001Web of Science ID
KeywordsNATURAL FREQUENCIES; CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY; ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY; DIAGNOSTIC INFERENCES; SAMPLING APPROACH; WORD-PROBLEMS; STRATEGIES; MOVEMENTS; RISK; REPRESENTATION; Bayesian reasoning; eye tracking; 2 x 2 table; tree diagram;; probabilities
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 370 Education
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-406269
Item ID40626

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