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Betz, Jennifer ; Kellner, Ralf ; Rösch, Daniel

Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates

Betz, Jennifer , Kellner, Ralf and Rösch, Daniel (2021) Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 70 (3), pp. 619-644.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 15 Feb 2022 07:29
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.46338


Abstract

Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. ...

Using access to a unique bank loss database, we find positive dependencies of default resolution times (DRTs) of defaulted bank loan contracts and final loan loss rates (losses given default, LGDs). Due to this interconnection, LGD predictions made at the time of default and during resolution are subject to censoring. Pure (standard) LGD models are not able to capture effects of censoring. Accordingly, their LGD predictions may be biased and underestimate loss rates of defaulted loans. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework for DRTs and LGDs. In comparison to previous approaches, we derive final DRT estimates for loans in default which enables consistent LGD predictions conditional on the time in default. Furthermore, adequate unconditional LGD predictions can be derived. The proposed method is applicable to duration processes in general where the final outcomes depend on the duration of the process and are affected by censoring. By this means, we avoid bias of parameter estimates to ensure adequate predictions.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleJournal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C
Publisher:Wiley
Place of Publication:HOBOKEN
Volume:70
Number of Issue or Book Chapter:3
Page Range:pp. 619-644
Date12 March 2021
InstitutionsBusiness, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Risikomanagement (Prof. Dr. Rösch)
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1111/rssc.12474DOI
KeywordsFORECASTING LOSS; RECOVERY RATES; GIVEN-DEFAULT; REGRESSION; CHAPTER-11; DURATION; MODELS; LOANS; LGD; default resolution time; Global Credit Data; loss given default; random effects
Dewey Decimal Classification300 Social sciences > 310 General statistics
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-463381
Item ID46338

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