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Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan ; Bruckmaier, Georg ; Marienhagen, Jörg

T(h)ree steps to improve Bayesian reasoning

Binder, Karin , Krauss, Stefan , Bruckmaier, Georg and Marienhagen, Jörg (2018) T(h)ree steps to improve Bayesian reasoning. In: 10th International Conference on Teaching Statistics - ICOTS 10 2018, 8 – 13 July 2018, Kyoto, Japan.

Date of publication of this fulltext: 15 Jun 2022 08:56
Conference or workshop item
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.51335


Abstract

Physicians must frequently combine statistical information on prevalence of diseases and on medical tests according to Bayes’ theorem in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis. Such decisionmaking processes are often associated with significant errors of judgment, which have been documented repeatedly with respect to the Bayesian “standard” task (i.e., one disease must be diagnosed based on one ...

Physicians must frequently combine statistical information on prevalence of diseases and on medical tests according to Bayes’ theorem in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis. Such decisionmaking processes are often associated with significant errors of judgment, which have been documented repeatedly with respect to the Bayesian “standard” task (i.e., one disease must be diagnosed based on one medical test). In the present contribution,we generalize the Bayesian reasoning paradigm to medical situations where more than just one medical test is involved and suggest three steps towards a better understanding of that generalized situation, namely, 1) replace probabilities with natural frequencies; 2) present a tree diagram containing natural frequencies; and 3) highlight the two branches of the tree that are relevant for the requested inference.


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Details

Item typeConference or workshop item (Paper)
Date2018
Additional Information (public)In M. A. Sorto, A. White, & L. Guyot (Eds.), Looking back, looking forward. Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Teaching Statistics (ICOTS10, July, 2018), Kyoto, Japan. Voorburg, The Netherlands: International Statistical Institute
InstitutionsMedicine > Abteilung für Nuklearmedizin
Mathematics > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 510 Mathematics
600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
StatusUnknown
RefereedUnknown
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
Item ID51335

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