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T(h)ree steps to improve Bayesian reasoning

DOI to cite this document:
10.5283/epub.51335
Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan ; Bruckmaier, Georg ; Marienhagen, Jörg
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Date of publication of this fulltext: 15 Jun 2022 08:56


Abstract

Physicians must frequently combine statistical information on prevalence of diseases and on medical tests according to Bayes’ theorem in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis. Such decisionmaking processes are often associated with significant errors of judgment, which have been documented repeatedly with respect to the Bayesian “standard” task (i.e., one disease must be diagnosed based on one ...

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