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Binder, Karin ; Krauss, Stefan ; Bruckmaier, Georg ; Marienhagen, Jörg

T(h)ree steps to improve Bayesian reasoning

Binder, Karin , Krauss, Stefan , Bruckmaier, Georg und Marienhagen, Jörg (2018) T(h)ree steps to improve Bayesian reasoning. In: 10th International Conference on Teaching Statistics - ICOTS 10 2018, 8 – 13 July 2018, Kyoto, Japan.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 15 Jun 2022 08:56
Konferenz- oder Workshop-Beitrag
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.51335


Zusammenfassung

Physicians must frequently combine statistical information on prevalence of diseases and on medical tests according to Bayes’ theorem in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis. Such decisionmaking processes are often associated with significant errors of judgment, which have been documented repeatedly with respect to the Bayesian “standard” task (i.e., one disease must be diagnosed based on one ...

Physicians must frequently combine statistical information on prevalence of diseases and on medical tests according to Bayes’ theorem in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis. Such decisionmaking processes are often associated with significant errors of judgment, which have been documented repeatedly with respect to the Bayesian “standard” task (i.e., one disease must be diagnosed based on one medical test). In the present contribution,we generalize the Bayesian reasoning paradigm to medical situations where more than just one medical test is involved and suggest three steps towards a better understanding of that generalized situation, namely, 1) replace probabilities with natural frequencies; 2) present a tree diagram containing natural frequencies; and 3) highlight the two branches of the tree that are relevant for the requested inference.


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Details

DokumentenartKonferenz- oder Workshop-Beitrag (Paper)
Datum2018
Zusätzliche Informationen (Öffentlich)In M. A. Sorto, A. White, & L. Guyot (Eds.), Looking back, looking forward. Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Teaching Statistics (ICOTS10, July, 2018), Kyoto, Japan. Voorburg, The Netherlands: International Statistical Institute
InstitutionenMedizin > Abteilung für Nuklearmedizin
Mathematik > Prof. Dr. Stefan Krauss
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin
StatusUnbekannt / Keine Angabe
BegutachtetUnbekannt / Keine Angabe
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
Dokumenten-ID51335

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