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Overcoming Observation Bias for Cancer Progression Modeling
Schill, Rudolf, Klever, Maren, Lösch, Andreas, Hu, Y. Linda
, Vocht, Stefan, Rupp, Kevin, Grasedyck, Lars, Spang, Rainer
and Beerenwinkel, Niko
(2023)
Overcoming Observation Bias for Cancer Progression Modeling.
bioRxiv.
(Submitted)
Date of publication of this fulltext: 24 Jan 2024 11:48
Article
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.55392
Abstract
Cancers evolve by accumulating genetic alterations, such as mutations and copy number changes. The chronological order of these events is important for understanding the disease, but not directly observable from cross-sectional genomic data. Cancer progression models (CPMs), such as Mutual Hazard Networks (MHNs), reconstruct the progression dynamics of tumors by learning a network of causal ...
Cancers evolve by accumulating genetic alterations, such as mutations and copy number changes. The chronological order of these events is important for understanding the disease, but not directly observable from cross-sectional genomic data. Cancer progression models (CPMs), such as Mutual Hazard Networks (MHNs), reconstruct the progression dynamics of tumors by learning a network of causal interactions between genetic events from their co-occurrence patterns. However, current CPMs fail to include effects of genetic events on the observation of the tumor itself and assume that observation occurs independently of all genetic events. Since a dataset contains by definition only tumors at their moment of observation, neglecting any causal effects on this event leads to the “conditioning on a collider” bias: Events that make the tumor more likely to be observed appear anti-correlated, which results in spurious suppressive effects or masks promoting effects among genetic events. Here, we extend MHNs by modeling effects from genetic progression events on the observation event, thereby correcting for the collider bias. We derive an efficient tensor formula for the likelihood function and learn two models on somatic mutation datasets from the MSK-IMPACT study. In colon adenocarcinoma, we find a strong effect on observation by mutations in TP53, and in lung adenocarcinoma by mutations in EGFR. Compared to classical MHNs, this explains away many spurious suppressive interactions and uncovers several promoting effects. The data, code, and results are available at https://github.com/cbg-ethz/ObservationMHN.
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| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | bioRxiv | ||||
| Title of Book: | Overcoming Observation Bias for Cancer Progression Modeling | ||||
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| Date | 5 December 2023 | ||||
| Additional Information (public) | "This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review" | ||||
| Institutions | Medicine > Institut für Funktionelle Genomik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) Informatics and Data Science > Department Computational Life Science > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) | ||||
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| Keywords | Cancer progression model · Selection bias · Collider bias | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 000 Computer science, information & general works > 004 Computer science | ||||
| Status | Submitted | ||||
| Refereed | No, this version has not been refereed yet (as with preprints) | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Partially | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-553921 | ||||
| Item ID | 55392 |
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